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the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":53.3,"repVoteShare":46.7,"demMarginPct":6.69,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":56.5,"repVoteShare":43.5,"demMarginPct":12.99,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":55.3,"repVoteShare":44.7,"demMarginPct":10.68,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":55.6,"repVoteShare":44.4,"demMarginPct":11.21,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":56.9,"repVoteShare":43.1,"demMarginPct":13.75,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":51.3,"repVoteShare":48.8,"demMarginPct":2.5,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":52.6,"repVoteShare":47.4,"demMarginPct":5.17,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":6.69,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},"related":[{"slug":"spaniard","name":"Spaniard","href":"/ancestry/spaniard","relationship":"Same 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