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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":53.1,"repVoteShare":46.9,"demMarginPct":6.29,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":56,"repVoteShare":44,"demMarginPct":11.93,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":54.5,"repVoteShare":45.5,"demMarginPct":8.92,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":55.1,"repVoteShare":44.9,"demMarginPct":10.21,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":56.8,"repVoteShare":43.2,"demMarginPct":13.57,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":51.7,"repVoteShare":48.3,"demMarginPct":3.41,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":52.6,"repVoteShare":47.4,"demMarginPct":5.17,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":6.29,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024"},"related":[{"slug":"polish","name":"Polish","href":"/ancestry/polish","relationship":"Same 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