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presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published ancestry-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":55.8,"repVoteShare":44.2,"demMarginPct":11.63,"ciLower":5.75,"ciUpper":14.6,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"HIGH","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+12 (High confidence)"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":58.6,"repVoteShare":41.4,"demMarginPct":17.26,"ciLower":10.29,"ciUpper":21.07,"method":"anchored_ancestry_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-public-release-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+17 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