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is the 2024 presidential margin for each county, computed as (Dem - Rep) / total votes * 100.","Modeled baseline is the latest published religion-model national Democratic margin for this group.","Residual = county actual margin minus the modeled baseline; rows rank by absolute residual with footprint share as the tiebreaker.","This module describes modeled geography versus county election results, not individual behavior."],"timeline":[{"year":2024,"demVoteShare":58.6,"repVoteShare":41.4,"demMarginPct":17.17,"ciLower":13.05,"ciUpper":19.24,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+17.2 · medium confidence"},{"year":2020,"demVoteShare":61.7,"repVoteShare":38.3,"demMarginPct":23.46,"ciLower":17.68,"ciUpper":26.5,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+23.5 · medium confidence"},{"year":2016,"demVoteShare":60.5,"repVoteShare":39.5,"demMarginPct":20.99,"ciLower":13.65,"ciUpper":24.74,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+21.0 · medium confidence"},{"year":2012,"demVoteShare":60,"repVoteShare":40,"demMarginPct":19.98,"ciLower":13.76,"ciUpper":23.11,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+20.0 · medium confidence"},{"year":2008,"demVoteShare":61.2,"repVoteShare":38.8,"demMarginPct":22.33,"ciLower":17.25,"ciUpper":24.89,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+22.3 · medium confidence"},{"year":2004,"demVoteShare":55.8,"repVoteShare":44.2,"demMarginPct":11.54,"ciLower":5.6,"ciUpper":14.64,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+11.5 · medium confidence"},{"year":2000,"demVoteShare":56.5,"repVoteShare":43.5,"demMarginPct":12.94,"ciLower":6.2,"ciUpper":16.66,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+12.9 · medium confidence"}],"politicsSummary":{"latestYear":2024,"latestMarginPct":17.17,"ciLower":13.05,"ciUpper":19.24,"method":"ecological_religion_model","reliability":"MEDIUM","modelVersion":"v1-ecological-unanchored-2000-2024","summaryLabel":"D+17.2 · medium confidence"},"related":[{"slug":"catholic","name":"Catholic","href":"/religion/catholic","relationship":"Peer tradition","releaseLabel":"PUBLISHED","indexStatus":"index","confidenceLabel":"Modeled politics 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