akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 9·California

California 9th Congressional District moved 14 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

A Bay Area district where a slim Democratic edge masks real competitiveness

2008 — 2024·5 elections
CA
LatestR+2in 2024
TypologyTexan Rightcluster typology
Population782,3692024 ACS

California 9th Congressional District: Texan Right district. In 2024, voted R+2%. Democratic peak: D+13 in 2016.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+2MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Texan RightAkashic typology
Population
782,3692024 5-year
Median household income
$94,0982024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
33.3%2024 5-year
Black
6.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
41.9%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+13 in 2012MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+2 in 2024MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
D
HARDER, JoshCongress 119 · Democratic
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score-0.30 sits at approximately the 35th percentile.0-0.30−1 liberal+1 conservative
HARDER scores -0.30 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: MCNERNEY, Jerry (2021–2023), MCNERNEY, Jerry (2019–2021), MCNERNEY, Jerry (2017–2019), MCNERNEY, Jerry (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 9
TrumpR+2
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 9, CAA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 9, CA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Stanislaus County, CA · R+11Contra Costa County, CA · D+38San Joaquin County, CA · R+1
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican49.4%127,424
Kamala HarrisDemocratic47.6%122,875
OtherAll other candidates3.0%7,807
D+60
R+60
3 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −1.8% in 2024.flipped R · 2024−1.8%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008+10.4%
2012+12.7%
2016+13.1%
2020+12.6%
2024−1.8%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−1.8%
122,875127,424258,106
D
+12.6%
157,818121,866285,805
D
+13.1%
118,66989,838220,491
D
+12.7%
112,52287,226199,748
D
+10.4%
110,80689,909201,781
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D58.9%41.1%15,348,846
2022D61.1%38.9%10,843,650
2018D100.0%0.0%11,113,364
2016D100.0%0.0%12,244,170
2012D62.5%37.5%12,578,511
2010D52.2%42.2%10,000,160
2006D59.4%35.0%8,541,476
2004D57.7%37.8%12,053,295
2000D55.8%36.6%10,623,608
1998D53.1%43.0%8,311,905
1994D46.7%44.8%8,514,089
1992D47.9%43.0%10,799,703
1988R44.0%52.8%9,743,598
1986D49.3%47.9%7,398,462
1982R44.8%51.5%7,805,450
1980D56.5%37.1%8,324,012
1976R46.9%50.2%7,470,586

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
6.5%
English
5.4%
Irish
5.0%
Italian
3.7%
American
1.9%
French
1.0%
Scottish
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 35.8 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.5%
85+
0.9%
1.7%
75–84
2.3%
3.9%
65–74
4.4%
5.6%
55–64
5.7%
6.1%
45–54
6.0%
7.2%
35–44
6.9%
6.9%
25–34
6.8%
4.7%
18–24
4.5%
10.0%
5–17
9.5%
3.3%
<5
3.2%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$94,098
Congressional District 9 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 9$94,098
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1816.0%
Working age (18–64)10.7%
Seniors (65+)12.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
57.4%
speak English only
Spanish27.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander8.8%
Other Indo-European5.8%
Other languages1.0%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
22.1%
Other Christian
7.9%
Non-Christian
2.5%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.4%
Baptist
1.9%
Mainline Protestant
1.2%
Methodist
0.5%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 61.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

California's 9th congressional district, anchored in the eastern Bay Area, returned a D+5.1 margin in 2024 — narrow by California standards and a signal of genuine swing potential in a state more often taken for granted.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of thirteen points in 2016 and a Republican high of two points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved fourteen points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was two points.

A population of 782,369, a 33% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $94,098 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 9, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0609/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 9, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 9, California voted Republican by 1.8 points (R+2), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 258,106 votes cast, 122,875 went Democratic and 127,424 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 9, California's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 9, California in the "Texan Right" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 4 times, Republican 1 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 9, California last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 9, California voted Democratic was 2020.
How many people live in Congressional District 9, California?
Congressional District 9, California has a population of 782,369 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 9, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 9, California is $94,098 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 9, California?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 9, California from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 4 went Democratic and 1 went Republican. The district's typology — "Texan Right" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.