akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 15·California

California 15th Congressional District moved 9 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

One of California's most Democratic-leaning districts by presidential margin

2008 — 2024·5 elections
CA
LatestD+48in 2024
TypologyTexan Rightcluster typology
Population280,6762024 ACS

California 15th Congressional District: Texan Right district. In 2024, voted D+48%. Democratic peak: D+59 in 2016.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+48MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Texan RightAkashic typology
Population
280,6762024 5-year
Median household income
$152,9212024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
38.2%2024 5-year
Black
3.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
22.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+59 in 2016MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
D
MULLIN, KevinCongress 119 · Democratic
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score-0.48 sits at approximately the 26th percentile.0-0.48−1 liberal+1 conservative
MULLIN scores -0.48 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: SWALWELL, Eric (2021–2023), SWALWELL, Eric (2019–2021), SWALWELL, Eric (2017–2019), SWALWELL, Eric (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 15
HarrisD+48
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 15, CAA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 15, CA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).San Mateo County, CA · D+50San Francisco County, CA · D+65
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic72.2%220,621
Donald TrumpRepublican24.3%74,255
OtherAll other candidates3.5%10,778
D+60
R+60
2 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: +47.9% in 2024.+47.9%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008+49.9%
2012+52.4%
2016+59.4%
2020+57.3%
2024+47.9%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+47.9%
220,62174,255305,654
D
+57.3%
272,99071,572351,212
D
+59.4%
222,74251,496288,063
D
+52.4%
193,57360,417253,990
D
+49.9%
190,90763,606255,249
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D58.9%41.1%15,348,846
2022D61.1%38.9%10,843,650
2018D100.0%0.0%11,113,364
2016D100.0%0.0%12,244,170
2012D62.5%37.5%12,578,511
2010D52.2%42.2%10,000,160
2006D59.4%35.0%8,541,476
2004D57.7%37.8%12,053,295
2000D55.8%36.6%10,623,608
1998D53.1%43.0%8,311,905
1994D46.7%44.8%8,514,089
1992D47.9%43.0%10,799,703
1988R44.0%52.8%9,743,598
1986D49.3%47.9%7,398,462
1982R44.8%51.5%7,805,450
1980D56.5%37.1%8,324,012
1976R46.9%50.2%7,470,586

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
Irish
6.9%
German
6.4%
English
6.1%
Italian
4.8%
American
2.5%
French
1.8%
Scottish
0.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.5%
2.3%
75–84
2.9%
4.7%
65–74
5.2%
6.4%
55–64
6.3%
6.8%
45–54
6.5%
7.9%
35–44
7.3%
8.5%
25–34
7.8%
3.6%
18–24
3.5%
6.6%
5–17
6.2%
2.4%
<5
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$152,921
Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 15$152,921
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
8.2%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 187.1%
Working age (18–64)7.8%
Seniors (65+)13.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
54.9%
speak English only
Asian & Pacific Islander21.5%
Spanish15.4%
Other Indo-European6.9%
Other languages1.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
21.2%
Other Christian
4.0%
Non-Christian
3.9%
Mainline Protestant
1.6%
Baptist
1.4%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Methodist
1.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 65.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

CA-15 covers a dense East Bay corridor with a heavily diverse, urban electorate that has delivered some of the widest presidential margins in the state, exceeding 35 points in 2024.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of fifty-nine points in 2016. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved nine points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was forty-eight points.

A population of 280,676, a 38% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $152,921 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 15, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0615/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 15, California voted Democratic by 47.9 points (D+48), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 305,654 votes cast, 220,621 went Democratic and 74,255 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 15, California's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 15, California in the "Texan Right" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 5 times, Republican 0 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 15, California?
Congressional District 15, California has a population of 280,676 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 15, California is $152,921 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 15, California?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, California from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 0 went Republican. The district's typology — "Texan Right" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.