akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 45·California

California 45th Congressional District moved 5 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

Orange County seat that has shifted steadily toward Democrats over a decade

2008 — 2024·5 elections
CA
LatestD+2in 2024
TypologyNew Americancluster typology
Population393,8372024 ACS

California 45th Congressional District: New American district. In 2024, voted D+2%. Democratic peak: D+13 in 2016.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+2MIT Election Lab
Political typology
New AmericanAkashic typology
Population
393,8372024 5-year
Median household income
$114,4292024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
41.9%2024 5-year
Black
2.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
35.2%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+13 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+4 in 2008MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
D
TRAN, DerekCongress 119 · Democratic
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score-0.26 sits at approximately the 37th percentile.0-0.26−1 liberal+1 conservative
TRAN scores -0.26 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: STEEL, Michelle (2023–2025), PORTER, Katie (2021–2023), PORTER, Katie (2019–2021), WALTERS, Mimi (2017–2019)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 45
HarrisD+2
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 45, CAA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 45, CA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Los Angeles County, CA · D+33Orange County, CA · D+3
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic49.3%159,817
Donald TrumpRepublican47.7%154,824
OtherAll other candidates3.0%9,633
D+60
R+60
2 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: +1.5% in 2024.flipped D · 2016+1.5%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008−4.2%
2012−0.2%
2016+13.2%
2020+6.2%
2024+1.5%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+1.5%
159,817154,824324,274
D
+6.2%
186,100164,033356,958
D
+13.2%
146,886110,734272,934
R
−0.2%
128,033128,620256,653
R
−4.2%
127,876139,233267,737
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D58.9%41.1%15,348,846
2022D61.1%38.9%10,843,650
2018D100.0%0.0%11,113,364
2016D100.0%0.0%12,244,170
2012D62.5%37.5%12,578,511
2010D52.2%42.2%10,000,160
2006D59.4%35.0%8,541,476
2004D57.7%37.8%12,053,295
2000D55.8%36.6%10,623,608
1998D53.1%43.0%8,311,905
1994D46.7%44.8%8,514,089
1992D47.9%43.0%10,799,703
1988R44.0%52.8%9,743,598
1986D49.3%47.9%7,398,462
1982R44.8%51.5%7,805,450
1980D56.5%37.1%8,324,012
1976R46.9%50.2%7,470,586

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
7.3%
English
7.1%
Irish
5.8%
American
4.4%
Italian
3.5%
French
1.4%
Polish
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 39.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.3%
2.1%
75–84
2.6%
4.4%
65–74
4.9%
6.5%
55–64
6.6%
6.6%
45–54
6.8%
6.7%
35–44
6.6%
7.3%
25–34
7.1%
4.5%
18–24
4.4%
8.1%
5–17
7.7%
2.7%
<5
2.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$114,429
Congressional District 45 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 45$114,429
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
9.8%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1811.2%
Working age (18–64)9.2%
Seniors (65+)12.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
53.0%
speak English only
Spanish25.2%
Asian & Pacific Islander15.4%
Other Indo-European4.9%
Other languages1.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
30.6%
Other Christian
9.7%
Baptist
2.8%
Non-Christian
2.6%
Mainline Protestant
1.8%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.7%
Methodist
0.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 50.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

CA-45 covers parts of Orange County once considered reliably Republican turf; the 2024 presidential margin of D+6.3 reflects a suburban realignment driven by demographic change and growing shares of college-educated and Asian American voters.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of thirteen points in 2016 and a Republican high of four points in 2008. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was two points.

A population of 393,837, a 42% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $114,429 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 45, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0645/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 45, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 45, California voted Democratic by 1.5 points (D+2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 324,274 votes cast, 159,817 went Democratic and 154,824 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 45, California's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 45, California in the "New American" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 3 times, Republican 2 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 45, California last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 45, California voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Congressional District 45, California?
Congressional District 45, California has a population of 393,837 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 45, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 45, California is $114,429 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 45, California?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 45, California from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 2 went Republican. The district's typology — "New American" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.