akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 51·California

California 51st Congressional District delivered D+23 in 2024.

San Diego's southernmost corridor, anchored by the U.S.–Mexico border

2008 — 2024·5 elections
CA
LatestD+23in 2024
TypologyDiversifying Metrocluster typology
Population147,6062024 ACS

California 51st Congressional District: Diversifying Metro district. In 2024, voted D+23%. Democratic peak: D+27 in 2020.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+23MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Diversifying MetroAkashic typology
Population
147,6062024 5-year
Median household income
$106,2682024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
48.4%2024 5-year
Black
4.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
34.6%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+27 in 2020MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
D
JACOBS, SaraCongress 119 · Democratic
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score-0.42 sits at approximately the 29th percentile.0-0.42−1 liberal+1 conservative
JACOBS scores -0.42 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: VARGAS, Juan (2021–2023), VARGAS, Juan (2019–2021), VARGAS, Juan (2017–2019), VARGAS, Juan (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 51
HarrisD+23
—
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic60.2%203,981
Donald TrumpRepublican36.7%124,408
OtherAll other candidates3.1%10,434
D+60
R+60
1 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: +23.5% in 2024.+23.5%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008+13.2%
2012+12.6%
2016+23.0%
2020+27.3%
2024+23.5%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+23.5%
203,981124,408338,823
D
+27.3%
230,683129,913369,327
D
+23.0%
174,433105,750298,836
D
+12.6%
155,227120,578275,805
D
+13.2%
165,319126,749292,680
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024D58.9%41.1%15,348,846
2022D61.1%38.9%10,843,650
2018D100.0%0.0%11,113,364
2016D100.0%0.0%12,244,170
2012D62.5%37.5%12,578,511
2010D52.2%42.2%10,000,160
2006D59.4%35.0%8,541,476
2004D57.7%37.8%12,053,295
2000D55.8%36.6%10,623,608
1998D53.1%43.0%8,311,905
1994D46.7%44.8%8,514,089
1992D47.9%43.0%10,799,703
1988R44.0%52.8%9,743,598
1986D49.3%47.9%7,398,462
1982R44.8%51.5%7,805,450
1980D56.5%37.1%8,324,012
1976R46.9%50.2%7,470,586

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
9.1%
English
8.0%
Irish
7.8%
Italian
4.2%
American
2.5%
French
1.8%
Polish
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.1%
2.0%
75–84
2.5%
4.3%
65–74
4.8%
5.8%
55–64
5.9%
6.1%
45–54
6.0%
7.4%
35–44
6.9%
8.3%
25–34
7.6%
5.3%
18–24
4.5%
7.9%
5–17
7.5%
2.9%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$106,268
Congressional District 51 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 51$106,268
California$99,122
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.3%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1811.8%
Working age (18–64)9.9%
Seniors (65+)10.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
62.7%
speak English only
Spanish24.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander7.8%
Other Indo-European3.7%
Other languages1.7%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
23.2%
Other Christian
10.1%
Non-Christian
3.1%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.5%
Mainline Protestant
1.5%
Baptist
1.4%
Methodist
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 58.6% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

California's 51st stretches along the Tijuana border crossing, one of the busiest land ports in the world, giving it a heavily Latino electorate and consistent double-digit Democratic margins in federal races.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of twenty-seven points in 2020. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was twenty-three points.

A population of 147,606, a 48% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $106,268 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 51, California. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0651/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 51, California vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 51, California voted Democratic by 23.5 points (D+23), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 338,823 votes cast, 203,981 went Democratic and 124,408 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 51, California's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 51, California in the "Diversifying Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 5 times, Republican 0 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 51, California?
Congressional District 51, California has a population of 147,606 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 51, California?
Median household income in Congressional District 51, California is $106,268 — above the national median of $80,734. The California state median is $99,122.
What is the political history of Congressional District 51, California?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 51, California from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 5 went Democratic and 0 went Republican. The district's typology — "Diversifying Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.