akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 15·Illinois

Illinois 15th Congressional District delivered R+40 in 2024.

One of the most Republican-leaning districts in the Midwest

2008 — 2024·5 elections
IL
LatestR+40in 2024
TypologyFarm Beltcluster typology
Population1,016,2412024 ACS

Illinois 15th Congressional District: Farm Belt district. In 2024, voted R+40%. Republican peak: R+40 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+40MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Farm BeltAkashic typology
Population
1,016,2412024 5-year
Median household income
$68,1942024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
83.6%2024 5-year
Black
7.1%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
4.1%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+40 in 2024MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
R
MILLER, Mary E.Congress 119 · Republican
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score0.79 sits at approximately the 89th percentile.00.79−1 liberal+1 conservative
MILLER scores 0.79 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: SHIMKUS, John M. (2019–2021), SHIMKUS, John M. (2017–2019), SHIMKUS, John M. (2015–2017), SHIMKUS, John M. (2013–2015)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 15
TrumpR+40
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 15, ILA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 15, IL, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Douglas County, IL · R+46Macon County, IL · R+19Logan County, IL · R+41Cass County, IL · R+43Menard County, IL · R+41Mason County, IL · R+42Adams County, IL · R+47De Witt County, IL · R+45Brown County, IL · R+60Piatt County, IL · R+31Schuyler County, IL · R+47Hancock County, IL · R+50McDonough County, IL · R+19Fulton County, IL · R+24Warren County, IL · R+25Henderson County, IL · R+39Scott County, IL · R+61Sangamon County, IL · R+5Jersey County, IL · R+50Montgomery County, IL · R+44Calhoun County, IL · R+56Morgan County, IL · R+32Greene County, IL · R+58Pike County, IL · R+64Bond County, IL · R+45Edgar County, IL · R+52Christian County, IL · R+47Coles County, IL · R+28Shelby County, IL · R+60Fayette County, IL · R+65Moultrie County, IL · R+49Mercer County, IL · R+27Champaign County, IL · D+24Vermilion County, IL · R+36Madison County, IL · R+13
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican68.7%263,044
Kamala HarrisDemocratic29.1%111,486
OtherAll other candidates2.2%8,441
D+60
R+60
35 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −39.6% in 2024.−39.6%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008−9.5%
2012−24.4%
2016−38.4%
2020−38.7%
2024−39.6%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−39.6%
111,486263,044382,971
R
−38.7%
116,973270,125395,233
R
−38.4%
102,632244,959371,004
R
−24.4%
131,723216,580348,303
R
−9.5%
164,782200,313374,755
Congressional elections · 16 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2022O0.0%41.5%4,098,896
2020D54.9%38.9%5,968,901
2016D54.9%39.8%5,491,878
2014D53.5%42.7%3,603,519
2010R46.4%48.0%3,704,473
2008D67.8%28.5%5,329,884
2004D70.0%27.0%5,141,520
2002D60.3%38.0%3,486,851
1998R47.4%50.3%3,394,521
1996D56.1%40.7%4,250,722
1992D53.3%43.1%4,939,558
1990D65.1%34.9%3,251,005
1986D65.1%33.7%3,122,883
1984D50.1%48.2%4,787,335
1980D56.0%42.5%4,580,029
1978R45.5%53.3%3,184,764

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
23.2%
English
12.3%
Irish
11.4%
American
6.3%
Italian
3.0%
Polish
1.4%
Scottish
1.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.5%
2.5%
75–84
3.3%
5.4%
65–74
5.9%
6.5%
55–64
6.6%
5.9%
45–54
5.7%
6.2%
35–44
6.0%
6.2%
25–34
5.9%
5.5%
18–24
5.1%
8.0%
5–17
7.6%
2.7%
<5
2.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$68,194
Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 15$68,194
Illinois$83,390
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
13.4%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.2%
Working age (18–64)13.1%
Seniors (65+)9.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
93.9%
speak English only
Spanish2.5%
Other Indo-European1.8%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.5%
Other languages0.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
12.8%
Catholic & Orthodox
12.0%
Mainline Protestant
7.1%
Baptist
5.4%
Methodist
4.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.7%
Non-Christian
0.8%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 54.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Illinois' 15th spans a vast swath of rural downstate territory where Republican presidential candidates have carried the district by margins exceeding 40 points in recent cycles, making it among the most lopsided congressional districts in the region.

Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of forty points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved one point toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was forty points.

A population of 1,016,241, a 84% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $68,194 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 15, Illinois. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/1715/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, Illinois vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 15, Illinois voted Republican by 39.6 points (R+40), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 382,971 votes cast, 111,486 went Democratic and 263,044 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 15, Illinois's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 15, Illinois in the "Farm Belt" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 0 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 15, Illinois?
Congressional District 15, Illinois has a population of 1,016,241 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, Illinois?
Median household income in Congressional District 15, Illinois is $68,194 — below the national median of $80,734. The Illinois state median is $83,390.
What is the political history of Congressional District 15, Illinois?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, Illinois from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The district's typology — "Farm Belt" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.