akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 2·Kentucky

Kentucky 2nd Congressional District moved 5 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

One of the widest presidential margins in the country, held since 2012

2008 — 2024·5 elections
KY
LatestR+41in 2024
TypologyIndustrial Catholic Metrocluster typology
Population879,4142024 ACS

Kentucky 2nd Congressional District: Industrial Catholic Metro district. In 2024, voted R+41%. Republican peak: R+41 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+41MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Industrial Catholic MetroAkashic typology
Population
879,4142024 5-year
Median household income
$65,8042024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
81.6%2024 5-year
Black
7.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.2%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+41 in 2024MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
R
GUTHRIE, BrettCongress 119 · Republican
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score0.43 sits at approximately the 71st percentile.00.43−1 liberal+1 conservative
GUTHRIE scores 0.43 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: LEWIS, Ron (2007–2009), LEWIS, Ron (2005–2007), LEWIS, Ron (2003–2005), LEWIS, Ron (2001–2003)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 2
TrumpR+41
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 2, KYA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 2, KY, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).McLean County, KY · R+56Hardin County, KY · R+29Grayson County, KY · R+62Hart County, KY · R+60Butler County, KY · R+66Larue County, KY · R+60Ohio County, KY · R+60Breckinridge County, KY · R+58Muhlenberg County, KY · R+54Meade County, KY · R+52Logan County, KY · R+55Barren County, KY · R+53Green County, KY · R+73Edmonson County, KY · R+63Hancock County, KY · R+48Daviess County, KY · R+32Warren County, KY · R+24Jefferson County, KY · D+16Nelson County, KY · R+42Bullitt County, KY · R+51
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican69.9%245,720
Kamala HarrisDemocratic28.6%100,533
OtherAll other candidates1.5%5,160
D+60
R+60
20 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −41.3% in 2024.−41.3%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008−21.9%
2012−28.1%
2016−39.8%
2020−36.7%
2024−41.3%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−41.3%
100,533245,720351,413
R
−36.7%
108,538237,944352,472
R
−39.8%
86,605210,840312,087
R
−28.1%
100,031178,289278,320
R
−21.9%
109,982173,232288,181
Congressional elections · 16 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2022R38.2%61.8%1,477,830
2020R38.2%57.8%2,135,057
2016R42.7%57.3%1,903,465
2014R40.7%56.2%1,435,868
2010R44.2%55.7%1,356,096
2008R47.0%53.0%1,800,821
2004R49.3%50.7%1,724,362
2002R35.3%64.7%1,131,313
1998R49.2%49.7%1,145,414
1996R42.8%55.5%1,307,046
1992D62.9%35.8%1,330,858
1990R47.8%52.2%916,010
1986D74.4%25.6%677,280
1984R49.5%49.9%1,292,407
1980D65.1%34.9%1,106,920
1978D61.0%36.9%476,783

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
13.9%
German
11.2%
American
11.2%
Irish
10.6%
Scottish
2.0%
Italian
2.0%
French
0.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.6%
85+
1.1%
2.2%
75–84
2.8%
4.8%
65–74
5.4%
6.3%
55–64
6.7%
6.1%
45–54
6.1%
6.4%
35–44
6.3%
6.6%
25–34
6.4%
4.7%
18–24
4.3%
8.7%
5–17
8.4%
3.0%
<5
2.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$65,804
Congressional District 2 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 2$65,804
Kentucky$63,726
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
15.0%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.5%
Working age (18–64)13.7%
Seniors (65+)14.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
92.1%
speak English only
Spanish3.5%
Other Indo-European2.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.4%
Other languages0.8%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
25.0%
Catholic & Orthodox
9.2%
Other Christian
8.8%
Methodist
4.1%
Mainline Protestant
1.6%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.5%
Non-Christian
0.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 49.3% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Spanning rural south-central and western Kentucky, this district recorded an R+41.9 margin in 2024 — among the largest in the nation — reflecting a deeply consolidated Republican coalition across its small-town and agricultural communities.

Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of forty-one points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was forty-one points.

A population of 879,414, a 82% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $65,804 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 2, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2102/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 2, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 2, Kentucky voted Republican by 41.3 points (R+41), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 351,413 votes cast, 100,533 went Democratic and 245,720 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 2, Kentucky's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 2, Kentucky in the "Industrial Catholic Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 0 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 2, Kentucky?
Congressional District 2, Kentucky has a population of 879,414 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 2, Kentucky?
Median household income in Congressional District 2, Kentucky is $65,804 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Congressional District 2, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 2, Kentucky from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The district's typology — "Industrial Catholic Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.