akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 5·Kentucky

Kentucky 5th Congressional District moved 5 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

Kentucky's 5th congressional district, covering most of eastern Kentucky's coalfields, has trended Republican by more than 60 points since 2016.

20082024·5 elections
KY
LatestR+64in 2024
TypologyEvangelical Deep Southcluster typology
Population737,7992024 ACS

Kentucky 5th Congressional District: Evangelical Deep South district. In 2024, voted R+64%. Republican peak: R+64 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+64MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Evangelical Deep SouthAkashic typology
Population
737,7992024 5-year
Median household income
$45,8392024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
94.2%2024 5-year
Black
1.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
1.6%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+64 in 2024MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
R
ROGERS, Harold Dallas (Hal)Congress 119 · Republican
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score0.33 sits at approximately the 67th percentile.00.33−1 liberal+1 conservative
ROGERS scores 0.33 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: CARTER, Tim Lee (1979–1981), CARTER, Tim Lee (1977–1979), CARTER, Tim Lee (1975–1977), CARTER, Tim Lee (1973–1975)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
Congressional District 5
TrumpR+64
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 5, KYA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 5, KY, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Bell County, KY · R+69Wayne County, KY · R+66Pulaski County, KY · R+65Lincoln County, KY · R+61Leslie County, KY · R+81Whitley County, KY · R+69Bath County, KY · R+51Owsley County, KY · R+77Jackson County, KY · R+82Rowan County, KY · R+28McCreary County, KY · R+79Clay County, KY · R+80Menifee County, KY · R+58Letcher County, KY · R+64Knox County, KY · R+71Laurel County, KY · R+70Martin County, KY · R+84Rockcastle County, KY · R+73Perry County, KY · R+60Morgan County, KY · R+63Elliott County, KY · R+62Harlan County, KY · R+76Lawrence County, KY · R+67Johnson County, KY · R+71Pike County, KY · R+65Wolfe County, KY · R+50Breathitt County, KY · R+59Magoffin County, KY · R+64Knott County, KY · R+59Lee County, KY · R+68Floyd County, KY · R+59Carter County, KY · R+58Boyd County, KY · R+39
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald TrumpRepublican81.3%257,614
Kamala HarrisDemocratic17.4%55,268
OtherAll other candidates1.2%3,886
D+60
R+60
33 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −63.9% in 2024.−63.9%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008−32.3%
2012−50.0%
2016−60.0%
2020−59.3%
2024−63.9%
DemocraticRepublican
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−63.9%
55,268257,614316,768
R
−59.3%
64,518258,844327,502
R
−60.0%
55,917236,997302,016
R
−50.0%
69,424208,010277,434
R
−32.3%
93,779186,609287,093

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2022R38.2%61.8%1,477,830
2020R38.2%57.8%2,135,057
2016R42.7%57.3%1,903,465
2014R40.7%56.2%1,435,868
2010R44.2%55.7%1,356,096
2008R47.0%53.0%1,800,821
2004R49.3%50.7%1,724,362
2002R35.3%64.7%1,131,313
1998R49.2%49.7%1,145,414
1996R42.8%55.5%1,307,046
1992D62.9%35.8%1,330,858
1990R47.8%52.2%916,010
1986D74.4%25.6%677,280
1984R49.5%49.9%1,292,407
1980D65.1%34.9%1,106,920
1978D61.0%36.9%476,783

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
American
16.1%
English
15.2%
Irish
9.9%
German
7.2%
Scottish
1.7%
Italian
1.0%
French
0.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
98.4%
speak English only
Spanish0.8%
Other Indo-European0.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.3%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
27.6%
Other Christian
6.5%
Pentecostal & Holiness
3.7%
Methodist
3.3%
Catholic & Orthodox
0.7%
Mainline Protestant
0.7%
Non-Christian
0.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 57.4% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Kentucky's 5th congressional district covers the eastern third of the state — most of the Cumberland Plateau, the Appalachian coalfields, and the Big Sandy valley. About 738,000 people live in the district. Hal Rogers has represented the seat since 1981, making him one of the longest-serving members of the House. Median household income across the district is among the lowest of any congressional district nationally; the share of working-age adults out of the labor force is among the highest. The district voted Democratic for president in every election from 1932 through 1996, narrowly favored George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 (R+20 in 2004), then shifted hard. Republican margins climbed to R+33 in 2008, R+49 in 2012, R+60 in 2016, R+59 in 2020, and R+64 in 2024 — making the district one of the most lopsidedly Republican in the country and the most Republican in Kentucky. Democratic vote totals fell from 121,954 in 2004 to 54,701 in 2024 even as turnout overall stayed roughly flat. The shift tracks closely with the collapse of underground coal employment in the region from the late 1990s onward.

Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of sixty-four points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was sixty-four points.

A population of 737,799, a 94% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $45,839 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 5, Kentucky. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2105/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 5, Kentucky vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 5, Kentucky voted Republican by 63.9 points (R+64), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 316,768 votes cast, 55,268 went Democratic and 257,614 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 5, Kentucky's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 5, Kentucky in the "Evangelical Deep South" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 0 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 5, Kentucky?
Congressional District 5, Kentucky has a population of 737,799 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 5, Kentucky?
Median household income in Congressional District 5, Kentucky is $45,839 — below the national median of $80,734. The Kentucky state median is $63,726.
What is the political history of Congressional District 5, Kentucky?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 5, Kentucky from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The district's typology — "Evangelical Deep South" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.