akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 4·Missouri

Missouri 4th Congressional District delivered R+42 in 2024.

One of Missouri's most reliably Republican congressional districts

2008 — 2024·5 elections
MO
LatestR+42in 2024
TypologyIndustrial Catholic Metrocluster typology
Population921,5922024 ACS

Missouri 4th Congressional District: Industrial Catholic Metro district. In 2024, voted R+42%. Republican peak: R+42 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+42MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Industrial Catholic MetroAkashic typology
Population
921,5922024 5-year
Median household income
$66,9982024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
81.1%2024 5-year
Black
7.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
6.2%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+42 in 2016MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
R
ALFORD, MarkCongress 119 · Republican
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score0.57 sits at approximately the 78th percentile.00.57−1 liberal+1 conservative
ALFORD scores 0.57 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: HARTZLER, Vicky (2021–2023), HARTZLER, Vicky (2019–2021), HARTZLER, Vicky (2017–2019), HARTZLER, Vicky (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 4
TrumpR+42
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 4, MOA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 4, MO, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Jackson County, MO · D+19Camden County, MO · R+54Bates County, MO · R+61Saline County, MO · R+40Cass County, MO · R+32Dade County, MO · R+67Polk County, MO · R+61St. Clair County, MO · R+61Pettis County, MO · R+49Pulaski County, MO · R+50Laclede County, MO · R+67Barton County, MO · R+72Johnson County, MO · R+39Morgan County, MO · R+60Hickory County, MO · R+61Vernon County, MO · R+59Henry County, MO · R+53Dallas County, MO · R+65Cedar County, MO · R+70Benton County, MO · R+59Howard County, MO · R+44Boone County, MO · D+10Lafayette County, MO · R+49Webster County, MO · R+62
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican70.5%264,569
Kamala HarrisDemocratic28.2%105,951
OtherAll other candidates1.3%4,759
D+60
R+60
24 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
Districts are drawn from fractional county slices; this map shows the whole counties that overlap the district. District boundaries: TIGER 2024.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −42.3% in 2024.−42.3%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008−17.6%
2012−28.7%
2016−41.7%
2020−39.5%
2024−42.3%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−42.3%
105,951264,569375,279
R
−39.5%
108,724255,561371,570
R
−41.7%
89,314229,679336,355
R
−28.7%
114,658206,859321,517
R
−17.6%
139,129200,027346,915
Congressional elections · 18 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024R41.8%55.6%2,972,559
2022R43.2%56.8%2,012,511
2018R45.6%51.4%2,442,289
2016R46.4%49.2%2,802,637
2012D54.8%39.1%2,725,793
2010R40.6%54.2%1,943,899
2006D49.6%47.3%2,128,459
2004R42.8%56.1%2,706,402
2002R48.7%49.8%1,877,620
2000D50.5%48.4%2,361,586
1998R43.8%52.7%1,576,857
1994R35.7%59.7%1,775,116
1992R44.9%51.9%2,354,916
1988R31.8%67.7%2,078,875
1986R47.4%52.6%1,477,327
1982R49.1%50.8%1,543,521
1980D52.0%47.7%2,066,965
1976R42.5%56.9%1,914,460

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
19.6%
English
13.3%
Irish
11.0%
American
7.4%
Italian
2.4%
Scottish
1.7%
French
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.2%
2.4%
75–84
2.9%
5.0%
65–74
5.5%
6.4%
55–64
6.5%
5.4%
45–54
5.5%
6.1%
35–44
6.1%
6.5%
25–34
6.4%
5.7%
18–24
5.1%
8.5%
5–17
8.0%
3.0%
<5
2.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$66,998
Congressional District 4 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 4$66,998
Missouri$70,702
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.0%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1817.2%
Working age (18–64)13.1%
Seniors (65+)12.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
93.2%
speak English only
Spanish3.4%
Other Indo-European2.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.0%
Other languages0.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Baptist
15.4%
Other Christian
10.9%
Catholic & Orthodox
5.1%
Mainline Protestant
4.4%
Methodist
3.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.6%
Non-Christian
0.9%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 56.9% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Stretching across rural west-central Missouri, this district returned a 36-point Republican presidential margin in 2024, reflecting a predominantly rural, low-density electorate that has moved steadily rightward over the past two decades.

Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of forty-two points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved three points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was forty-two points.

A population of 921,592, a 81% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $66,998 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 4, Missouri. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/2904/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 4, Missouri vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 4, Missouri voted Republican by 42.3 points (R+42), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 375,279 votes cast, 105,951 went Democratic and 264,569 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 4, Missouri's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 4, Missouri in the "Industrial Catholic Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 0 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 4, Missouri?
Congressional District 4, Missouri has a population of 921,592 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 4, Missouri?
Median household income in Congressional District 4, Missouri is $66,998 — below the national median of $80,734. The Missouri state median is $70,702.
What is the political history of Congressional District 4, Missouri?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 4, Missouri from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The district's typology — "Industrial Catholic Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.