akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 15·Texas

Texas 15th Congressional District moved 15 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

A South Texas corridor where shifting Latino vote share reshapes margins

2008 — 2024·5 elections
TX
LatestR+18in 2024
TypologyNew Americancluster typology
Population990,9582024 ACS

Texas 15th Congressional District: New American district. In 2024, voted R+18%. Republican peak: R+18 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+18MIT Election Lab
Political typology
New AmericanAkashic typology
Population
990,9582024 5-year
Median household income
$62,0012024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
36.3%2024 5-year
Black
2.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
79.8%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+13 in 2012MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+18 in 2024MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
R
DE LA CRUZ, MonicaCongress 119 · Republican
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score0.47 sits at approximately the 74th percentile.00.47−1 liberal+1 conservative
DE LA CRUZ scores 0.47 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: GONZALEZ, Vicente, Jr. (2021–2023), GONZALEZ, Vicente, Jr. (2019–2021), GONZALEZ, Vicente, Jr. (2017–2019), HINOJOSA, Rubén (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 15
TrumpR+18
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 15, TXA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 15, TX, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Guadalupe County, TX · R+29Karnes County, TX · R+58Wilson County, TX · R+54Live Oak County, TX · R+70Brooks County, TX · D+10Hidalgo County, TX · R+3Starr County, TX · R+16Jim Wells County, TX · R+16
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican58.5%134,478
Kamala HarrisDemocratic40.6%93,454
OtherAll other candidates0.9%1,985
D+60
R+60
8 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −17.8% in 2024.flipped R · 2020−17.8%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008+12.2%
2012+12.5%
2016+13.2%
2020−2.9%
2024−17.8%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−17.8%
93,454134,478229,917
R
−2.9%
109,165115,714226,348
D
+13.2%
98,40874,664179,863
D
+12.5%
82,55564,154146,709
D
+12.2%
79,81562,338143,662
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024R44.6%53.1%11,291,854
2020R43.9%53.5%11,144,040
2018R48.3%50.9%8,371,655
2014R34.4%61.6%4,648,358
2012R40.6%56.5%7,864,822
2008R42.8%54.8%7,912,075
2006R36.0%61.7%4,314,663
2002R43.3%55.3%4,514,012
2000R32.3%65.1%6,267,964
1996R43.9%54.8%5,527,441
1994R38.3%60.8%4,279,940
1990R37.4%60.2%3,822,157
1988D59.2%40.0%5,323,606
1984R41.4%58.5%5,314,178
1982D58.6%40.5%3,103,167
1978R49.3%49.8%2,312,540
1976D56.8%42.2%3,874,230

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
5.1%
English
2.8%
American
2.7%
Irish
2.6%
Polish
0.7%
Italian
0.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 32.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.5%
85+
0.8%
1.9%
75–84
2.3%
3.4%
65–74
4.0%
4.6%
55–64
5.0%
5.8%
45–54
6.0%
6.5%
35–44
6.3%
6.9%
25–34
6.6%
5.3%
18–24
5.0%
11.1%
5–17
10.7%
3.7%
<5
3.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$62,001
Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 15$62,001
Texas$78,476
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
23.0%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1831.1%
Working age (18–64)19.3%
Seniors (65+)20.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
34.2%
speak English only
Spanish64.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.7%
Other Indo-European0.5%
Other languages0.1%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
40.3%
Other Christian
8.8%
Baptist
4.6%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.0%
Methodist
1.0%
Mainline Protestant
0.9%
Non-Christian
0.2%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 43.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

TX-15 stretches through the Rio Grande Valley's northern edge, where a significant rightward shift among Hispanic voters over recent cycles has tightened what were once reliably wide Democratic margins, making the district a closely watched bellwether for Latino political realignment.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of thirteen points in 2016 and a Republican high of eighteen points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved fifteen points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was eighteen points.

A population of 990,958, a 36% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $62,001 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 15, Texas. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/4815/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, Texas vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 15, Texas voted Republican by 17.8 points (R+18), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 229,917 votes cast, 93,454 went Democratic and 134,478 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 15, Texas's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 15, Texas in the "New American" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 3 times, Republican 2 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 15, Texas last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 15, Texas voted Democratic was 2016.
How many people live in Congressional District 15, Texas?
Congressional District 15, Texas has a population of 990,958 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, Texas?
Median household income in Congressional District 15, Texas is $62,001 — below the national median of $80,734. The Texas state median is $78,476.
What is the political history of Congressional District 15, Texas?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, Texas from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 2 went Republican. The district's typology — "New American" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.