akashic
1876–2024
Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)·Florida

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) moved 8 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

Florida's most competitive media market, decided by single-digit margins

1876 — 2024·38 elections
FL
LatestR+16in 2024
TypologyFlorida Surgecluster typology
Population5,278,5732024 ACS

Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida: Florida Surge market. In 2024, voted R+16%. Democratic peak: D+89 in 1892.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+16MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Florida SurgeAkashic typology
Population
5,278,5732024 5-year
Median household income
$73,6292024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
64.9%2024 5-year
Black
10.8%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
21.3%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+89 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+46 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)
TrumpR+16
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), FLA map of the constituent counties of Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), FL, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Pasco County, FL · R+25Hardee County, FL · R+56Sarasota County, FL · R+18Hernando County, FL · R+37Manatee County, FL · R+24Highlands County, FL · R+41Citrus County, FL · R+46Pinellas County, FL · R+5Polk County, FL · R+21Hillsborough County, FL · R+3
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican57.4%1,511,350
Kamala HarrisDemocratic41.6%1,094,881
OtherAll other candidates1.0%25,353
D+60
R+60
10 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: −15.8% in 2024.flipped R · 2012−15.8%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884+61.0%
1888No data
1892+88.5%
1896+58.3%
1900+66.7%
1904+57.0%
1908+61.2%
1912+63.5%
1916+55.6%
1920+26.7%
1924+25.0%
1928−23.0%
1932+44.8%
1936+41.8%
1940+43.9%
1944+36.6%
1948+1.4%
1952−20.5%
1956−25.2%
1960−14.7%
1964+4.2%
1968−16.7%
1972−46.3%
1976−0.5%
1980−17.6%
1984−33.8%
1988−22.1%
1992−3.4%
1996+4.1%
2000−2.5%
2004−8.2%
2008+0.8%
2012−1.9%
2016−8.5%
2020−8.1%
2024−15.8%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−15.8%
1,094,8811,511,3502,631,584
R
−8.1%
1,212,0621,427,9302,667,322
R
−8.5%
989,9361,180,2172,250,302
R
−1.9%
984,9791,023,7902,030,303
D
+0.8%
1,004,313988,7322,011,894
R
−8.2%
844,014997,1231,858,357
R
−2.5%
711,801750,1311,505,471
D
+4.1%
635,027579,1931,361,637
R
−3.4%
517,149564,7551,404,443
R
−22.1%
446,191700,5431,153,165
R
−33.8%
374,121755,4451,129,797
R
−17.6%
378,687551,188980,958
R
−0.5%
395,142398,780804,284
R
−46.3%
178,366486,449666,125
R
−16.7%
161,244255,323562,052
D
+4.2%
245,153225,340470,493
R
−14.7%
175,326235,928411,254
R
−25.2%
107,124179,161286,285
R
−20.5%
94,520143,318237,838
D
+1.4%
59,94857,952138,759
D
+36.6%
80,98137,613118,594
D
+43.9%
86,85033,860120,710
D
+41.8%
57,37023,53580,905
D
+44.8%
51,90219,80071,702
R
−23.0%
24,98140,25366,424
D
+25.0%
14,1967,89325,235
D
+26.7%
17,9719,82330,474
D
+55.6%
11,5632,43316,418
D
+63.5%
6,90049610,092
D
+61.2%
5,6659217,753
D
+57.0%
4,4318616,261
D
+66.7%
4,9326086,483
D
+58.3%
4,8101,1406,299
D
+88.5%
4,94905,589
—
No data
———
D
+61.0%
3,7229014,623
—
No data
———
—
No data
———

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
11.5%
English
9.9%
Irish
9.8%
American
8.9%
Italian
6.6%
Polish
2.6%
French
2.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 44.7 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
1.1%
85+
1.6%
3.6%
75–84
4.2%
5.8%
65–74
6.8%
6.5%
55–64
7.1%
5.9%
45–54
6.1%
6.1%
35–44
6.2%
6.2%
25–34
6.2%
3.8%
18–24
3.7%
7.3%
5–17
6.9%
2.5%
<5
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$73,629
Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota) ranks near the middle of US counties.
Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota)$73,629
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.1%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.8%
Working age (18–64)11.2%
Seniors (65+)12.1%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
77.7%
speak English only
Spanish15.6%
Other Indo-European4.1%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.9%
Other languages0.8%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
20.7%
Other Christian
11.9%
Baptist
6.2%
Methodist
2.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.5%
Mainline Protestant
1.8%
Non-Christian
1.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Spanning Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties, this market blends a blue-leaning urban core with fast-growing suburban and retirement communities, making it a consistent battleground for statewide races.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of eighty-nine points in 1892 and a Republican high of forty-six points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved eight points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was sixteen points.

A population of 5,278,573, a 65% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $73,629 describe the market.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/539/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida voted Republican by 15.8 points (R+16), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,631,584 votes cast, 1,094,881 went Democratic and 1,511,350 went Republican.
What is Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida's political typology?
Akashic places Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida in the "Florida Surge" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 17 times, and other 0 times.
When did Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida voted Democratic was 2008.
How many people live in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida?
Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida has a population of 5,278,573 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida?
Median household income in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida is $73,629 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Tampa-St. Pete (Sarasota), Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 17 went Republican. The market's typology — "Florida Surge" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.