akashic
1876–2024
Gainesville·Florida

Gainesville has voted Democratic in nine straight presidential elections — D+2 in 2024.

A university town market where student enrollment shapes the electorate each cycle

1876 — 2024·38 elections
FL
LatestD+2in 2024
TypologyFlorida Surgecluster typology
Population366,9812024 ACS

Gainesville, Florida: Florida Surge market. In 2024, voted D+2%. Democratic peak: D+84 in 1892.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+2MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Florida SurgeAkashic typology
Population
366,9812024 5-year
Median household income
$60,8372024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
66.0%2024 5-year
Black
16.5%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
11.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+84 in 1892MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+21 in 1972MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Gainesville
HarrisD+2
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Gainesville, FLA map of the constituent counties of Gainesville, FL, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Gilchrist County, FL · R+68Alachua County, FL · D+21Dixie County, FL · R+70Levy County, FL · R+50
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic50.3%90,395
Donald TrumpRepublican48.4%87,024
OtherAll other candidates1.3%2,306
D+60
R+60
4 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: +1.9% in 2024.flipped D · 1992+1.9%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884−0.7%
1888No data
1892+84.3%
1896+40.1%
1900+57.6%
1904+39.8%
1908+28.4%
1912+61.2%
1916+59.4%
1920+46.1%
1924+52.0%
1928+24.3%
1932+70.5%
1936+76.1%
1940+73.1%
1944+65.1%
1948+26.4%
1952−1.6%
1956+5.8%
1960+5.5%
1964+9.3%
1968+1.5%
1972−21.1%
1976+31.0%
1980+14.6%
1984−11.7%
1988−5.2%
1992+16.9%
1996+16.8%
2000+8.8%
2004+3.5%
2008+9.5%
2012+5.0%
2016+6.4%
2020+9.0%
2024+1.9%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+1.9%
90,39587,024179,725
D
+9.0%
98,97482,375183,601
D
+6.4%
83,64973,171163,588
D
+5.0%
79,50171,820153,667
D
+9.5%
86,19771,117159,327
D
+3.5%
72,55567,542141,437
D
+8.8%
56,51546,995108,549
D
+16.8%
48,81832,95394,176
D
+16.9%
45,58429,40595,698
R
−5.2%
35,33339,29275,413
R
−11.7%
31,96240,43072,453
D
+14.6%
34,65625,20864,926
D
+31.0%
35,89618,59755,850
R
−21.1%
18,72128,74347,560
O
+1.5%
11,36010,81535,985
D
+9.3%
17,10314,17931,282
D
+5.5%
13,09211,73724,829
D
+5.8%
10,5399,38019,919
R
−1.6%
9,81610,13319,949
D
+26.4%
6,6192,78514,537
D
+65.1%
9,8282,08011,908
D
+73.1%
11,6721,81013,482
D
+76.1%
8,7971,1939,990
D
+70.5%
7,0371,2188,255
O
+24.3%
3,4961,4318,505
D
+52.0%
2,7767563,883
D
+46.1%
4,1921,4965,842
D
+59.4%
2,7426563,514
D
+61.2%
1,6792952,263
D
+28.4%
1,6508752,725
D
+39.8%
1,7036942,537
D
+57.6%
1,3463341,756
D
+40.1%
1,5456452,245
D
+84.3%
1,44701,717
—
No data
———
R
−0.7%
2,3962,4284,824
—
No data
———
—
No data
———

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
English
12.6%
German
11.2%
Irish
10.4%
Italian
4.5%
American
4.5%
Scottish
2.9%
Polish
1.9%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 35.3 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.2%
2.5%
75–84
2.7%
4.7%
65–74
5.5%
5.3%
55–64
5.9%
5.0%
45–54
5.1%
5.8%
35–44
5.9%
6.9%
25–34
6.8%
8.6%
18–24
9.3%
6.8%
5–17
6.6%
2.4%
<5
2.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$60,837
Gainesville ranks near the middle of US counties.
Gainesville$60,837
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
20.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.2%
Working age (18–64)21.0%
Seniors (65+)13.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
85.7%
speak English only
Spanish7.4%
Other Indo-European3.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.8%
Other languages0.6%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Other Christian
14.2%
Baptist
10.6%
Catholic & Orthodox
8.2%
Methodist
4.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
3.3%
Mainline Protestant
1.5%
Non-Christian
1.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 56.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Gainesville media market anchors Alachua County, where University of Florida's roughly 50,000 students create unusually high turnout volatility and a college-educated demographic profile that diverges sharply from surrounding rural North Florida counties.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of eighty-four points in 1892 and a Republican high of twenty-one points in 1972. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved seven points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was two points.

A population of 366,981, a 66% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $60,837 describe the market.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Gainesville, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/592/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Gainesville, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Gainesville, Florida voted Democratic by 1.9 points (D+2), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 179,725 votes cast, 90,395 went Democratic and 87,024 went Republican.
What is Gainesville, Florida's political typology?
Akashic places Gainesville, Florida in the "Florida Surge" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 28 times, Republican 5 times, and other 2 times.
When did Gainesville, Florida last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Gainesville, Florida voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Gainesville, Florida?
Gainesville, Florida has a population of 366,981 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Gainesville, Florida?
Median household income in Gainesville, Florida is $60,837 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Gainesville, Florida?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Gainesville, Florida from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 28 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The market's typology — "Florida Surge" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.