Byron Donalds

Donalds has $31M and Trump's endorsement, and the February JMI poll shows him leading Jolly 41-36 with independent Jason Pizzo at 6%. That's tighter than the October UNF poll (45-34). Mason-Dixon's February GOP primary has Donalds at 37% with 49% undecided — commanding but not yet sealed. The D primary is wide open: Jolly leads Demings 23-19 (Mason-Dixon Jan) with 58% undecided, though PPP has them tied 22-22. Democrats nominated former-R Charlie Crist in 2022 and lost badly, so the Jolly "party-switcher" liability is real. Florida hasn't elected a Democratic governor since 1994, and housing costs, property insurance, and property taxes are the top voter concerns — issues that cut against the incumbent party but not enough to overcome R+13 structural headwinds.