akashic
1876–2024
Nogales, AZ·Arizona

Nogales, AZ has voted Democratic in nine straight presidential elections — D+19 in 2024.

A binational port city where trade volumes shape local economic identity

1876 — 2024·38 elections
AZ
LatestD+19in 2024
TypologyNew Americancluster typology
Population48,9262024 ACS

Nogales, AZ, Arizona: New American metro. In 2024, voted D+19%. Democratic peak: D+47 in 2016.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
D+19MIT Election Lab
Political typology
New AmericanAkashic typology
Population
48,9262024 5-year
Median household income
$55,2172024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
28.5%2024 5-year
Black
0.2%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
82.5%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+47 in 2016MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+22 in 1984MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Nogales, AZ
HarrisD+19
—
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Kamala Harris ✓Democratic58.8%11,265
Donald TrumpRepublican40.2%7,699
OtherAll other candidates1.1%203
D+60
R+60
1 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: +18.6% in 2024.flipped D · 1992+18.6%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884No data
1888No data
1892No data
1896No data
1900No data
1904No data
1908No data
1912+41.4%
1916+4.2%
1920−9.3%
1924+6.5%
1928+2.3%
1932+43.4%
1936+39.0%
1940+22.2%
1944+27.9%
1948+14.5%
1952−11.4%
1956−18.5%
1960+19.2%
1964+13.1%
1968−4.1%
1972−6.6%
1976−1.0%
1980−11.0%
1984−21.8%
1988−0.8%
1992+6.0%
1996+36.5%
2000+21.2%
2004+19.2%
2008+31.3%
2012+37.7%
2016+47.4%
2020+35.5%
2024+18.6%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
D
+18.6%
11,2657,69919,167
D
+35.5%
13,1386,19419,581
D
+47.4%
11,6903,89716,433
D
+37.7%
9,4864,23513,911
D
+31.3%
8,6834,51813,303
D
+19.2%
6,9094,66811,689
D
+21.2%
5,2333,3448,893
D
+36.5%
5,2412,2568,167
D
+6.0%
3,5123,0248,080
R
−0.8%
3,2683,3206,690
R
−21.8%
2,4633,8556,389
R
−11.0%
2,0892,6745,340
R
−1.0%
2,2652,3124,738
R
−6.6%
1,8662,1374,079
R
−4.1%
1,5571,7023,533
D
+13.1%
1,9551,5033,460
D
+19.2%
1,8681,2653,135
R
−18.5%
1,1311,6462,778
R
−11.4%
1,3651,7163,081
D
+14.5%
1,4241,0582,519
D
+27.9%
1,2917272,022
D
+22.2%
1,5369782,516
D
+39.0%
1,7297422,530
D
+43.4%
1,6066252,260
D
+2.3%
9629191,884
D
+6.5%
6735791,450
R
−9.3%
7068501,556
D
+4.2%
7266661,442
D
+41.4%
25056469
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Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
3.8%
English
2.8%
Irish
2.5%
Italian
1.5%
American
1.3%
French
0.7%
Polish
0.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.9%
85+
1.1%
2.9%
75–84
3.3%
5.1%
65–74
6.0%
5.4%
55–64
6.1%
5.3%
45–54
5.8%
5.2%
35–44
6.0%
5.9%
25–34
6.0%
4.7%
18–24
4.5%
9.8%
5–17
9.8%
3.2%
<5
3.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$55,217
Nogales, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.
Nogales, AZ$55,217
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
20.2%
Children face higher poverty than working-age adults.
Children under 1827.2%
Working age (18–64)17.7%
Seniors (65+)18.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
22.3%
speak English only
Spanish77.1%
Other Indo-European0.3%
Asian & Pacific Islander0.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
78.7%
Other Christian
5.9%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.2%
Mainline Protestant
0.5%
Baptist
0.4%
Methodist
0.4%
Non-Christian
0.1%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 11.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Nogales anchors one of the busiest land ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border, and its heavily Latino electorate — over 95% Hispanic by census estimates — produces some of Arizona's most lopsided Democratic margins in federal races.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of forty-seven points in 2016 and a Republican high of twenty-two points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved seventeen points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was nineteen points.

A population of 48,926, a 29% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $55,217 describe the metro.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Nogales, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/35700/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Nogales, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic by 18.6 points (D+19), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 19,167 votes cast, 11,265 went Democratic and 7,699 went Republican.
What is Nogales, AZ, Arizona's political typology?
Akashic places Nogales, AZ, Arizona in the "New American" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 20 times, Republican 9 times, and other 0 times.
When did Nogales, AZ, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Nogales, AZ, Arizona voted Republican was 1988.
How many people live in Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Nogales, AZ, Arizona has a population of 48,926 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Median household income in Nogales, AZ, Arizona is $55,217 — below the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Nogales, AZ, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Nogales, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 20 went Democratic and 9 went Republican. The metro's typology — "New American" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.