Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ Metro Area — Elections 1876–2024

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona: Diversifying Metro metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1984.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin: R+5MIT Election Lab
Political typology: Diversifying MetroAkashic typology
Population: 5,028,7542024 5-year
Median household income: $88,4572024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic): 58.9%2024 5-year
Black: 5.7%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino: 31.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin: D+39 in 1936MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin: R+44 in 1984MIT Election Lab

2024 presidential election

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ

TrumpR+5

—

How it voted

Share of the 2024 vote

Donald Trump ✓Republican	51.9%	1,178,457
Kamala HarrisDemocratic	46.7%	1,060,672
OtherAll other candidates	1.4%	32,618

D+60

R+60

2 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.

presidential history

Presidential margin, 1876–2024

Democratic minus Republican, by election

Presidential margin over time
Year	Margin (D minus R)
1876	No data
1880	No data
1884	No data
1888	No data
1892	No data
1896	No data
1900	No data
1904	No data
1908	No data
1912	+34.5%
1916	+13.5%
1920	−12.0%
1924	−5.8%
1928	−23.1%
1932	+32.3%
1936	+39.3%
1940	+23.0%
1944	+13.6%
1948	+6.2%
1952	−20.0%
1956	−24.7%
1960	−17.3%
1964	−6.4%
1968	−26.0%
1972	−41.5%
1976	−25.6%
1980	−39.1%
1984	−43.5%
1988	−29.9%
1992	−7.7%
1996	−1.8%
2000	−9.9%
2004	−14.6%
2008	−10.8%
2012	−11.1%
2016	−4.1%
2020	+0.6%
2024	−5.2%

DemocraticRepublican

38 presidential elections

Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
Year	Won	Margin	Democratic	Republican	Total
2024	R	−5.2%	1,060,672	1,178,457	2,271,747
2020	D	+0.6%	1,115,880	1,102,742	2,261,611
2016	R	−4.1%	750,799	820,180	1,697,380
2012	R	−11.1%	646,594	811,964	1,489,641
2008	R	−10.8%	646,420	805,869	1,469,845
2004	R	−14.6%	532,101	716,461	1,259,583
2000	R	−9.9%	406,333	500,089	942,989
1996	R	−1.8%	383,570	399,049	854,327
1992	R	−7.7%	300,925	371,718	913,571
1988	R	−29.9%	244,802	457,303	710,698
1984	R	−43.5%	166,756	428,366	600,892
1980	R	−39.1%	128,959	328,482	510,092
1976	R	−25.6%	155,208	267,616	439,445
1972	R	−41.5%	101,539	255,177	370,559
1968	R	−26.0%	93,613	169,145	290,897
1964	R	−6.4%	131,953	150,070	282,198
1960	R	−17.3%	94,066	133,531	227,743
1956	R	−24.7%	59,073	97,902	157,183
1952	R	−20.0%	54,807	82,234	137,041
1948	D	+6.2%	44,070	38,817	84,879
1944	D	+13.6%	35,223	26,762	62,215
1940	D	+23.0%	39,466	24,606	64,508
1936	D	+39.3%	35,529	14,887	52,478
1932	D	+32.3%	31,738	16,086	48,464
1928	R	−23.1%	13,565	21,720	35,323
1924	R	−5.8%	10,165	11,686	26,119
1920	R	−12.0%	10,089	12,829	22,918
1916	D	+13.5%	8,866	6,602	16,819
1912	D	+34.5%	2,958	722	6,474
1908	—	No data	—	—	—
1904	—	No data	—	—	—
1900	—	No data	—	—	—
1896	—	No data	—	—	—
1892	—	No data	—	—	—
1888	—	No data	—	—	—
1884	—	No data	—	—	—
1880	—	No data	—	—	—
1876	—	No data	—	—	—

Demographics

2024 ACS

Race, ethnicity, and ancestry

Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.

German

12.5%

English

9.8%

Irish

8.8%

Italian

4.3%

American

4.2%

Polish

2.2%

French

1.7%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.

2024 ACS

Age distribution by sex

Median age: 37.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally

Male

Age

Female

0.7%

85+

1.1%

2.5%

75–84

2.9%

4.4%

65–74

5.1%

5.7%

55–64

6.0%

6.1%

45–54

6.1%

6.8%

35–44

6.5%

7.5%

25–34

7.1%

4.8%

18–24

4.4%

8.6%

5–17

8.2%

2.9%

2.8%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Median household income

Inflation-adjusted dollars

$88,457

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ ranks near the middle of US counties.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ$88,457

Arizona$79,964

United States$80,734

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Poverty rate

All persons below federal poverty line

11.0%

Child poverty is below the national average.

Children under 1814.3%

Working age (18–64)10.0%

Seniors (65+)10.5%

Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.

2024 ACS

Language at home

Population aged 5 and older

74.7%

speak English only

Spanish19.0%

Asian & Pacific Islander2.6%

Other Indo-European2.3%

Other languages1.4%

Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.

2020 religion census

Religious adherents

Adherents per capita by tradition

Catholic & Orthodox

23.2%

Other Christian

14.9%

Non-Christian

3.0%

Pentecostal & Holiness

1.7%

Mainline Protestant

1.6%

Baptist

1.6%

Methodist

0.6%

Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 53.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler added roughly 200,000 residents between 2020 and 2023, accelerating a suburban realignment that narrowed once-reliable statewide margins and elevated Maricopa County to one of the most closely watched bellwether counties in the Southwest.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of thirty-nine points in 1936 and a Republican high of forty-four points in 1984. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved six points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was five points.

A population of 5,028,754, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $88,457 describe the metro.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page

All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/38060/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.

License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona vote in 2024?

In 2024, Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Republican by 5.2 points (R+5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 2,271,747 votes cast, 1,060,672 went Democratic and 1,178,457 went Republican.

What is Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona's political typology?

Akashic places Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona in the "Diversifying Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 8 times, Republican 21 times, and other 0 times.

When did Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona last vote Democratic?

The most recent presidential election in which Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona voted Democratic was 2020.

How many people live in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona has a population of 5,028,754 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.

What is the median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?

Median household income in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona is $88,457 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.

What is the political history of Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona?

Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ, Arizona from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 8 went Democratic and 21 went Republican. The metro's typology — "Diversifying Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.

Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ moved 6 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

Key facts

Demographics

Compare two places, side by side

Frequently asked questions