Arizona 4th Congressional District: Diversifying Metro district. In 2024, voted D+7%. Democratic peak: D+10 in 2020.
Key facts
- 2024 presidential margin
- D+7MIT Election Lab
- Political typology
- Diversifying MetroAkashic typology
- Population
- 88,8632024 5-year
- Median household income
- $89,3002024 5-year
- White (non-Hispanic)
- 58.6%2024 5-year
- Black
- 5.7%2024 5-year
- Hispanic / Latino
- 31.2%2024 5-year
- Peak Democratic margin
- D+10 in 2020MIT Election Lab
- Peak Republican margin
- R+7 in 2008MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
D
STANTON, Greg
STANTON scores -0.28 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).
Predecessors: GOSAR, Paul (2021–2023), GOSAR, Paul (2019–2021), GOSAR, Paul (2017–2019), GOSAR, Paul (2015–2017)
Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 4
HarrisD+7
Constituent county margins for Congressional District 4, AZOne cell per constituent county, colored by 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic), ordered bluest first.
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
| Kamala Harris ✓Democratic | 52.6% | 182,893 |
|---|---|---|
| Donald TrumpRepublican | 46.0% | 159,723 |
| OtherAll other candidates | 1.4% | 4,890 |
D+60R+60
1 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin.
Districts are drawn from fractional county slices; this map shows the whole counties that overlap the district. District boundaries: TIGER 2024.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
| Year | Margin (D minus R) |
|---|---|
| 2008 | −7.0% |
| 2012 | −7.4% |
| 2016 | +2.5% |
| 2020 | +10.3% |
| 2024 | +6.7% |
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
| Year | Won | Margin | Democratic | Republican | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | 182,893 | 159,723 | 347,506 | ||
| D | 201,148 | 162,947 | 371,376 | ||
| D | 135,868 | 128,584 | 291,933 | ||
| R | 121,734 | 141,207 | 262,941 | ||
| R | 128,093 | 147,622 | 279,712 |
Congressional elections · 18 Senate races
U.S. Senate
| Year | Won | D % | R % | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | D | 50.1% | 47.7% | 3,347,964 |
| 2022 | D | 51.4% | 46.5% | 2,572,294 |
| 2020 | D | 51.2% | 48.8% | 3,355,307 |
| 2018 | D | 50.0% | 47.6% | 2,384,308 |
| 2016 | R | 40.7% | 53.7% | 2,530,730 |
| 2012 | R | 46.2% | 49.2% | 2,243,422 |
| 2010 | R | 34.7% | 58.9% | 1,708,484 |
| 2006 | R | 43.5% | 53.3% | 1,526,782 |
| 2004 | R | 20.6% | 76.7% | 1,961,677 |
| 2000 | R | 0.0% | 79.3% | 1,397,076 |
| 1998 | R | 27.2% | 68.7% | 1,013,280 |
| 1994 | R | 39.5% | 53.7% | 1,119,060 |
| 1992 | R | 31.6% | 55.8% | 1,382,051 |
| 1988 | D | 56.7% | 41.1% | 1,164,539 |
| 1986 | R | 39.5% | 60.5% | 862,921 |
| 1982 | D | 56.9% | 40.3% | 723,885 |
| 1980 | R | 48.4% | 49.5% | 874,238 |
| 1976 | D | 54.0% | 43.3% | 741,210 |
Demographics
2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
12.4%
English
9.8%
Irish
8.8%
Italian
4.4%
American
4.2%
Polish
2.2%
French
1.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 37.6 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
85+
75–84
65–74
55–64
45–54
35–44
25–34
18–24
5–17
<5
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$89,300
Congressional District 4 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 4$89,300
Arizona$79,964
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
11.0%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1814.4%
Working age (18–64)9.9%
Seniors (65+)10.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
74.0%
speak English only
Spanish19.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.7%
Other Indo-European2.4%
Other languages1.4%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 52.8% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.
Arizona's 4th stretches across rural and exurban terrain west and south of Phoenix, where Republican presidential candidates have carried the district by margins exceeding 40 points, making it among the most one-sided congressional seats in the state.
Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of ten points in 2020 and a Republican high of seven points in 2012. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was seven points.
A population of 88,863, a 59% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $89,300 describe the district.
Compare two places, side by side
Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →
Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 4, Arizona. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/0404/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0
Frequently asked questions
How did Congressional District 4, Arizona vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 4, Arizona voted Democratic by 6.7 points (D+7), carried by the Democratic candidate. Out of 347,506 votes cast, 182,893 went Democratic and 159,723 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 4, Arizona's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 4, Arizona in the "Diversifying Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 3 times, Republican 2 times, and other 0 times.
When did Congressional District 4, Arizona last vote Republican?
The most recent presidential election in which Congressional District 4, Arizona voted Republican was 2012.
How many people live in Congressional District 4, Arizona?
Congressional District 4, Arizona has a population of 88,863 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 4, Arizona?
Median household income in Congressional District 4, Arizona is $89,300 — above the national median of $80,734. The Arizona state median is $79,964.
What is the political history of Congressional District 4, Arizona?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 4, Arizona from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 3 went Democratic and 2 went Republican. The district's typology — "Diversifying Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.