akashic
1876–2024
Congressional District 15·Florida

Florida 15th Congressional District moved 8 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

A fast-growing I-4 corridor district that swung sharply rightward by 2024

2008 — 2024·5 elections
FL
LatestR+11in 2024
TypologyTexan Rightcluster typology
Population737,3722024 ACS

Florida 15th Congressional District: Texan Right district. In 2024, voted R+11%. Republican peak: R+11 in 2024.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+11MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Texan RightAkashic typology
Population
737,3722024 5-year
Median household income
$77,1942024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
54.3%2024 5-year
Black
14.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
28.4%2024 5-year
Peak Republican margin
R+11 in 2024MIT Election Lab
DW-NOMINATE
Member ideology
R
LEE, LaurelCongress 119 · Republican
DW-NOMINATE first-dimension (economic) score0.42 sits at approximately the 71st percentile.00.42−1 liberal+1 conservative
LEE scores 0.42 on the first NOMINATE dimension (−1 most liberal, +1 most conservative).

Predecessors: FRANKLIN, C. Scott (2021–2023), SPANO, Ross (2019–2021), ROSS, Dennis (2017–2019), ROSS, Dennis (2015–2017)

Source · Voteview / Lewis, Poole, Rosenthal et al. (CC-BY).
2024 presidential election
Congressional District 15
TrumpR+11
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Congressional District 15, FLA map of the constituent counties of Congressional District 15, FL, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Pasco County, FL · R+25Polk County, FL · R+21Hillsborough County, FL · R+3
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican54.6%195,534
Kamala HarrisDemocratic43.5%155,660
OtherAll other candidates1.8%6,610
D+60
R+60
3 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 2008–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 2008 to 2024. Most recent: −11.1% in 2024.−11.1%DR20082024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
2008−0.3%
2012−2.0%
2016−3.8%
2020−3.1%
2024−11.1%
DemocraticRepublican
5 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−11.1%
155,660195,534357,804
R
−3.1%
176,009187,577368,731
R
−3.8%
144,024156,059314,909
R
−2.0%
137,555143,128280,683
R
−0.3%
133,878134,820271,529
Congressional elections · 17 Senate races

U.S. Senate

Source · MIT Election Lab (MEDSL), Senate. CC-BY 4.0.
YearWonD %R %Total
2024R42.8%55.6%10,757,428
2022R41.3%57.7%7,758,014
2018R49.9%50.1%8,190,005
2016R44.3%52.0%9,301,820
2012D55.2%42.2%8,189,946
2010R20.2%48.9%5,411,106
2006D60.3%38.1%4,793,534
2004R48.3%49.4%7,429,894
2000D51.0%46.2%5,856,731
1998D62.5%37.5%3,900,162
1994R29.5%70.5%4,106,816
1992D65.4%34.6%4,962,290
1988R49.6%50.4%4,068,209
1986D54.7%45.3%3,429,996
1982D61.7%38.3%2,653,419
1980R48.3%51.7%3,528,028
1976D63.0%37.0%2,857,534

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
9.0%
Irish
7.9%
English
7.7%
American
7.3%
Italian
5.8%
Polish
2.2%
French
1.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 38.9 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.1%
2.2%
75–84
2.8%
4.4%
65–74
5.1%
6.0%
55–64
6.3%
6.4%
45–54
6.4%
6.9%
35–44
7.1%
7.1%
25–34
7.2%
4.4%
18–24
4.4%
8.1%
5–17
7.7%
2.8%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$77,194
Congressional District 15 ranks near the middle of US counties.
Congressional District 15$77,194
Florida$74,568
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
12.5%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1815.4%
Working age (18–64)11.6%
Seniors (65+)13.6%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
71.4%
speak English only
Spanish21.2%
Other Indo-European4.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.3%
Other languages1.2%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
23.5%
Other Christian
13.3%
Baptist
8.3%
Methodist
3.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.6%
Non-Christian
1.8%
Mainline Protestant
1.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 46.1% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Anchored in the suburban Tampa Bay–to–Orlando stretch, FL-15 has trended consistently toward Republican margins over the past three cycles, with 2024 showing a 15.6-point gap that reflects broader demographic shifts among working-class and Hispanic voters in the region.

Across the recorded series it reached a Republican high of eleven points in 2024. Between 2020 and 2024 the district moved eight points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was eleven points.

A population of 737,372, a 54% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $77,194 describe the district.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Congressional District 15, Florida. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cd/1215/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Congressional District 15, Florida vote in 2024?
In 2024, Congressional District 15, Florida voted Republican by 11.1 points (R+11), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 357,804 votes cast, 155,660 went Democratic and 195,534 went Republican.
What is Congressional District 15, Florida's political typology?
Akashic places Congressional District 15, Florida in the "Texan Right" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 5 elections in the dataset, the district has voted Democratic 0 times, Republican 5 times, and other 0 times.
How many people live in Congressional District 15, Florida?
Congressional District 15, Florida has a population of 737,372 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Congressional District 15, Florida?
Median household income in Congressional District 15, Florida is $77,194 — below the national median of $80,734. The Florida state median is $74,568.
What is the political history of Congressional District 15, Florida?
Akashic tracks 5 presidential elections in Congressional District 15, Florida from 2008 to 2024. Of those, 0 went Democratic and 5 went Republican. The district's typology — "Texan Right" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.