
Safe Republican — shifted 5.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
50K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+52.2
TURNOUT
51.4%
#64 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$55K
COLLEGE+
20%
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 70pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 49.1pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 20% college+ (-15pp vs national)