
Safe Republican — shifted 7.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
33K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe R
2024 PRES
R+62.3
TURNOUT
62.5%
#28 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$66K
COLLEGE+
15%
Place Story
Evangelical edge: 85pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 70.5pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 15% college+ (-20pp vs national)