
Leans Republican — 40 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
406K
COMPETITIVENESS
Likely R
2024 PRES
R+8.9
TURNOUT
64.5%
#19 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$86K
COLLEGE+
46%
Place Story
Leans Republican since 1980
Evangelical edge: 42pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 56.3pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Demographically distinctive: 46% college+ (+11pp vs national)