Lincoln County, Arkansas
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 6.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(11) | 61.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(4) | 5.1% |
▶Black / African American(2) | 27.8% |
Asian | 0.2% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.0% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 32.4% | 80.9% |
| Black Protestant | 4.8% | 12.0% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.7% | 6.7% |
| Catholic | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 59.9% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+50.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+43.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+32.0 |
| 2012 | Romney+20.8 |
| 2008 | McCain+18.2 |
| 2004 | Kerry+5.5 |
| 2000 | Gore+12.2 |
| 1996 | Clinton+43.9 |
| 1992 | Clinton+38.3 |
Lincoln, Arkansas is a county that has a population of 12,950. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+50.1. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 24.1% | 74.2% | R+50.1 | R+6.3 |
| 2020 | 26.6% | 70.4% | R+43.8 | R+11.8 |
| 2016 | 33.3% | 65.4% | R+32.0 | R+11.3 |
| 2012 | 38.2% | 59.0% | R+20.8 | R+2.5 |
| 2008 | 38.8% | 57.0% | R+18.2 | R+23.8 |
| 2004 | 52.3% | 46.8% | D+5.5 | R+6.6 |
| 2000 | 55.2% | 43.0% | D+12.2 | R+31.7 |
| 1996 | 68.6% | 24.7% | D+43.9 | D+5.6 |
| 1992 | 64.5% | 26.3% | D+38.3 | D+21.2 |
| 1988 | 58.1% | 41.0% | D+17.1 | D+4.3 |
| 1984 | 56.3% | 43.5% | D+12.8 | R+20.3 |
| 1980 | 65.4% | 32.3% | D+33.1 | R+29.6 |
| 1976 | 81.3% | 18.7% | D+62.7 | D+97.7 |
| 1972 | 32.5% | 67.5% | R+35.0 | R+54.1 |
| 1968 | 32.0% | 12.9% | D+19.1 | R+8.2 |
| 1964 | 63.6% | 36.3% | D+27.3 | R+16.4 |
| 1960 | 67.3% | 23.7% | D+43.6 | D+8.3 |
| 1956 | 67.2% | 31.9% | D+35.3 | R+16.3 |
| 1952 | 75.7% | 24.1% | D+51.6 | D+8.2 |
| 1948 | 65.9% | 22.5% | D+43.4 | — |
What defines Lincoln?
Lincoln has been trending Republican — 29pp redder over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a working-class electorate (12% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide. Voter engagement runs low — in the bottom 15% of peers for turnout in 2024.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 50.1% margin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2004, Republicans in 2024
Located In
Lincoln sits inside these higher-level geographies.