Orange County, California
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 6.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 34 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 36.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 34.2% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 1.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 22.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 2.9% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.9% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(6) | 0.3% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.7% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 29.9% | 60.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.7% | 23.6% |
| Other | 5.8% | 11.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 2.3% | 4.6% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.3% | 2.7% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.7% | 1.4% |
| Black Protestant | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 50.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+2.6 |
| 2020 | Biden+9.0 |
| 2016 | Clinton+8.6 |
| 2012 | Romney+6.2 |
| 2008 | McCain+2.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+20.7 |
| 2000 | Bush+15.4 |
| 1996 | Dole+13.8 |
| 1992 | Bush+12.3 |
Orange, California is a county that has a population of 3,165,820. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+2.6. Akashic Edge tracks 34 presidential elections here, dating back to 1892.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 49.7% | 47.1% | D+2.6 | R+6.4 |
| 2020 | 53.5% | 44.5% | D+9.0 | D+0.4 |
| 2016 | 50.9% | 42.3% | D+8.6 | D+14.8 |
| 2012 | 45.6% | 51.9% | R+6.2 | R+3.7 |
| 2008 | 47.6% | 50.2% | R+2.6 | D+18.1 |
| 2004 | 39.0% | 59.7% | R+20.7 | R+5.3 |
| 2000 | 40.4% | 55.8% | R+15.4 | R+1.6 |
| 1996 | 37.9% | 51.7% | R+13.8 | R+1.5 |
| 1992 | 31.6% | 43.9% | R+12.3 | D+24.3 |
| 1988 | 31.1% | 67.7% | R+36.7 | D+13.8 |
| 1984 | 24.3% | 74.7% | R+50.4 | R+5.2 |
| 1980 | 22.6% | 67.9% | R+45.3 | R+18.4 |
| 1976 | 35.3% | 62.2% | R+26.8 | D+14.5 |
| 1972 | 26.9% | 68.3% | R+41.3 | R+8.1 |
| 1968 | 29.9% | 63.1% | R+33.3 | R+21.4 |
| 1964 | 44.0% | 55.9% | R+11.9 | D+10.0 |
| 1960 | 38.9% | 60.8% | R+21.9 | D+12.6 |
| 1956 | 32.3% | 66.8% | R+34.5 | D+6.1 |
| 1952 | 29.3% | 69.9% | R+40.6 | R+16.1 |
| 1948 | 36.4% | 60.9% | R+24.5 | — |
What defines Orange?
Orange has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a majority-minority electorate where racial demographics are the primary driver of partisan lean.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Split-ticket voting in 2024: Different parties won President and Senate
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2012
- College attainment is 44% — 11pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally