Manatee County, Florida
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 7.5pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 38 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 67.6% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 18.3% |
▶Black / African American(11) | 7.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 2.3% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 0.6% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.6% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.3% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 12.9% | 40.6% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 11.8% | 37.0% |
| Other | 2.9% | 9.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.7% | 8.5% |
| Black Protestant | 1.2% | 3.9% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 2.3% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.3% | 1.0% |
| Non-religious | 68.2% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+23.5 |
| 2020 | Trump+16.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+17.2 |
| 2012 | Romney+12.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+7.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+14.0 |
| 2000 | Bush+8.0 |
| 1996 | Dole+2.3 |
| 1992 | Bush+8.9 |
Manatee, Florida is a county that has a population of 429,792. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+23.5. Akashic Edge tracks 38 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 37.9% | 61.4% | R+23.5 | R+7.5 |
| 2020 | 41.6% | 57.6% | R+16.1 | D+1.1 |
| 2016 | 39.8% | 57.0% | R+17.2 | R+4.7 |
| 2012 | 43.2% | 55.7% | R+12.4 | R+5.4 |
| 2008 | 45.9% | 52.9% | R+7.0 | D+7.0 |
| 2004 | 42.7% | 56.6% | R+14.0 | R+6.0 |
| 2000 | 44.6% | 52.6% | R+8.0 | R+5.7 |
| 1996 | 43.2% | 45.6% | R+2.3 | D+6.5 |
| 1992 | 33.8% | 42.6% | R+8.9 | D+22.6 |
| 1988 | 34.1% | 65.5% | R+31.4 | D+14.1 |
| 1984 | 27.2% | 72.8% | R+45.5 | R+16.8 |
| 1980 | 33.1% | 61.8% | R+28.8 | R+19.6 |
| 1976 | 44.8% | 53.9% | R+9.1 | D+51.0 |
| 1972 | 19.7% | 79.8% | R+60.1 | R+31.4 |
| 1968 | 23.8% | 52.5% | R+28.7 | R+15.2 |
| 1964 | 43.3% | 56.7% | R+13.5 | D+16.8 |
| 1960 | 34.9% | 65.1% | R+30.3 | D+7.2 |
| 1956 | 31.1% | 68.6% | R+37.5 | R+4.7 |
| 1952 | 33.6% | 66.4% | R+32.8 | R+24.8 |
| 1948 | 36.3% | 44.3% | R+8.0 | — |
What defines Manatee?
It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the urban swing demographic that decides close elections.
County in State Context
Current Florida Polling
Contextual statewide polling for Florida. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
2026 Florida Senate General Election
Ashley Moody leads at 44.5%
2 pollsLow
Field Preview
2026 Florida Governor General Election
Byron Donalds leads at 43.5%
3 pollsLow
Field Preview
Ask the Historian
Explore this county's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 23.5% margin
- Turnout increased by 3.4 percentage points since the previous presidential election