Seminole County, Florida
Latest: 2024
Competitive — shifted 6.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 28 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 54.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(19) | 23.9% |
▶Black / African American(15) | 11.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.4% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10) | 1.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 22.1% | 41.4% |
| Catholic | 20.1% | 37.7% |
| Other | 4.0% | 7.5% |
| Black Protestant | 4.0% | 7.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 2.6% | 5.0% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.0% | 1.9% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.6% | 1.1% |
| Non-religious | 46.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+3.5 |
| 2020 | Biden+2.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+1.6 |
| 2012 | Romney+6.5 |
| 2008 | McCain+2.8 |
| 2004 | Bush+16.8 |
| 2000 | Bush+12.0 |
| 1996 | Dole+12.8 |
| 1992 | Bush+18.2 |
Seminole, Florida is a county that has a population of 481,470. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+3.5. Akashic Edge tracks 28 presidential elections here, dating back to 1916.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 47.6% | 51.1% | R+3.5 | R+6.3 |
| 2020 | 50.8% | 48.0% | D+2.8 | D+4.4 |
| 2016 | 47.1% | 48.7% | R+1.6 | D+4.9 |
| 2012 | 46.1% | 52.6% | R+6.5 | R+3.7 |
| 2008 | 48.1% | 50.9% | R+2.8 | D+14.0 |
| 2004 | 41.3% | 58.1% | R+16.8 | R+4.7 |
| 2000 | 43.0% | 55.0% | R+12.0 | D+0.8 |
| 1996 | 39.2% | 52.0% | R+12.8 | D+5.4 |
| 1992 | 30.3% | 48.6% | R+18.2 | D+26.9 |
| 1988 | 27.1% | 72.2% | R+45.1 | D+6.8 |
| 1984 | 24.0% | 75.9% | R+51.9 | R+14.6 |
| 1980 | 28.9% | 66.2% | R+37.3 | R+22.2 |
| 1976 | 41.9% | 56.9% | R+15.1 | D+46.8 |
| 1972 | 19.0% | 80.8% | R+61.8 | R+42.4 |
| 1968 | 25.3% | 44.7% | R+19.4 | R+14.4 |
| 1964 | 47.5% | 52.5% | R+5.0 | D+24.3 |
| 1960 | 35.4% | 64.6% | R+29.3 | D+1.0 |
| 1956 | 34.8% | 65.1% | R+30.3 | R+10.2 |
| 1952 | 40.0% | 60.0% | R+20.0 | R+31.9 |
| 1948 | 45.2% | 33.3% | D+11.9 | — |
What defines Seminole?
Seminole has flipped between parties in each of the last three elections — a fiercely contested battleground. It has a racially mixed, moderately educated electorate — the urban swing demographic that decides close elections.
County in State Context
Current Florida Polling
Contextual statewide polling for Florida. County pages stay rooted in county returns, but live statewide polling helps frame the current cycle.
2026 Florida Senate General Election
Ashley Moody leads at 44.5%
2 pollsLow
Field Preview
2026 Florida Governor General Election
Byron Donalds leads at 43.5%
3 pollsLow
Field Preview
Ask the Historian
Explore this county's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2016 election was decided by just 1.6 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2020, Republicans in 2024
- College attainment is 43% — 10pp above the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Democratic lean nationally