Elkhart County, Indiana
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 4.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 69.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 20.1% |
▶Black / African American(8) | 4.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(7) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.7% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 27.0% | 58.9% |
| Catholic | 8.7% | 18.9% |
| Black Protestant | 4.3% | 9.4% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.0% | 8.7% |
| Other | 1.7% | 3.7% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.7% | 1.5% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.1% | 0.3% |
| Non-religious | 54.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+32.4 |
| 2020 | Trump+28.1 |
| 2016 | Trump+32.0 |
| 2012 | Romney+26.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+11.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+40.7 |
| 2000 | Bush+37.8 |
| 1996 | Dole+23.9 |
| 1992 | Bush+25.4 |
Elkhart, Indiana is a county that has a population of 207,132. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+32.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 33.1% | 65.4% | R+32.4 | R+4.3 |
| 2020 | 35.1% | 63.2% | R+28.1 | D+3.9 |
| 2016 | 31.3% | 63.2% | R+32.0 | R+5.6 |
| 2012 | 35.9% | 62.3% | R+26.4 | R+15.3 |
| 2008 | 43.8% | 55.0% | R+11.2 | D+29.6 |
| 2004 | 29.3% | 70.0% | R+40.7 | R+2.9 |
| 2000 | 30.5% | 68.3% | R+37.8 | R+13.9 |
| 1996 | 32.6% | 56.6% | R+23.9 | D+1.5 |
| 1992 | 28.1% | 53.5% | R+25.4 | D+15.2 |
| 1988 | 29.5% | 70.1% | R+40.6 | D+3.9 |
| 1984 | 27.5% | 72.0% | R+44.5 | R+13.4 |
| 1980 | 30.4% | 61.4% | R+31.0 | R+9.6 |
| 1976 | 38.7% | 60.1% | R+21.4 | D+20.4 |
| 1972 | 28.8% | 70.6% | R+41.8 | R+17.5 |
| 1968 | 33.6% | 57.9% | R+24.3 | R+28.6 |
| 1964 | 51.7% | 47.4% | D+4.3 | D+30.7 |
| 1960 | 36.4% | 62.8% | R+26.4 | D+12.3 |
| 1956 | 30.4% | 69.1% | R+38.7 | R+3.8 |
| 1952 | 31.5% | 66.3% | R+34.8 | R+19.0 |
| 1948 | 40.9% | 56.7% | R+15.8 | — |
What defines Elkhart?
It has a working-class electorate (20% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 32.4% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 21.2 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate