Harlan County, Kentucky
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 4.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(11) | 93.9% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(4) | 0.5% |
▶Black / African American(3) | 1.3% |
▶Asian(3) | 0.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.2% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.8% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 43.9% | 84.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.7% | 9.1% |
| Black Protestant | 2.3% | 4.5% |
| Catholic | 0.5% | 1.0% |
| Other | 0.3% | 0.6% |
| Non-religious | 48.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+76.2 |
| 2020 | Trump+71.8 |
| 2016 | Trump+72.1 |
| 2012 | Romney+64.0 |
| 2008 | McCain+46.2 |
| 2004 | Bush+21.0 |
| 2000 | Gore+3.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+25.1 |
| 1992 | Clinton+23.2 |
Harlan, Kentucky is a county that has a population of 25,772. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+76.2. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 11.5% | 87.7% | R+76.2 | R+4.4 |
| 2020 | 13.6% | 85.4% | R+71.8 | D+0.3 |
| 2016 | 12.8% | 84.9% | R+72.1 | R+8.1 |
| 2012 | 17.2% | 81.2% | R+64.0 | R+17.8 |
| 2008 | 26.1% | 72.3% | R+46.2 | R+25.2 |
| 2004 | 39.1% | 60.2% | R+21.0 | R+24.7 |
| 2000 | 50.9% | 47.3% | D+3.6 | R+21.4 |
| 1996 | 58.0% | 33.0% | D+25.1 | D+1.9 |
| 1992 | 55.7% | 32.5% | D+23.2 | D+5.9 |
| 1988 | 58.4% | 41.1% | D+17.3 | D+12.5 |
| 1984 | 51.9% | 47.1% | D+4.8 | R+18.3 |
| 1980 | 60.9% | 37.8% | D+23.1 | D+0.8 |
| 1976 | 60.8% | 38.5% | D+22.3 | D+42.1 |
| 1972 | 39.6% | 59.4% | R+19.8 | R+33.7 |
| 1968 | 48.9% | 35.0% | D+13.9 | R+26.1 |
| 1964 | 70.0% | 30.0% | D+40.0 | D+29.6 |
| 1960 | 55.2% | 44.8% | D+10.3 | D+22.4 |
| 1956 | 43.9% | 56.0% | R+12.1 | R+27.9 |
| 1952 | 57.8% | 42.0% | D+15.8 | R+18.9 |
| 1948 | 66.8% | 32.1% | D+34.7 | — |
What defines Harlan?
It has a working-class, predominantly white electorate — strong Republican base territory.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 76.2% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 30.0 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate