Bay County, Michigan
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 3.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 88.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(7) | 5.9% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 1.2% |
▶Asian(5) | 0.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.1% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.2% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(2) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 19.9% | 50.1% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 15.0% | 37.9% |
| Mainline Protestant | 3.4% | 8.5% |
| Other | 0.9% | 2.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.5% | 1.3% |
| Black Protestant | 0.5% | 1.2% |
| Non-religious | 60.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+14.7 |
| 2020 | Trump+11.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+12.6 |
| 2012 | Obama+5.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+15.3 |
| 2004 | Kerry+9.8 |
| 2000 | Gore+11.8 |
| 1996 | Clinton+23.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+18.6 |
Bay, Michigan is a county that has a population of 103,008. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+14.7. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 42.0% | 56.7% | R+14.7 | R+3.1 |
| 2020 | 43.4% | 55.0% | R+11.6 | D+1.0 |
| 2016 | 40.6% | 53.2% | R+12.6 | R+18.1 |
| 2012 | 52.0% | 46.5% | D+5.5 | R+9.7 |
| 2008 | 56.6% | 41.3% | D+15.3 | D+5.4 |
| 2004 | 54.4% | 44.6% | D+9.8 | R+2.0 |
| 2000 | 54.7% | 42.9% | D+11.8 | R+12.0 |
| 1996 | 56.1% | 32.3% | D+23.8 | D+5.2 |
| 1992 | 48.7% | 30.1% | D+18.6 | D+3.3 |
| 1988 | 57.4% | 42.1% | D+15.3 | D+22.6 |
| 1984 | 46.1% | 53.4% | R+7.3 | R+5.8 |
| 1980 | 44.9% | 46.4% | R+1.5 | R+7.1 |
| 1976 | 52.2% | 46.6% | D+5.6 | D+8.6 |
| 1972 | 47.1% | 50.1% | R+3.0 | R+9.2 |
| 1968 | 50.3% | 44.1% | D+6.2 | R+36.6 |
| 1964 | 71.3% | 28.5% | D+42.8 | D+38.1 |
| 1960 | 52.3% | 47.5% | D+4.8 | D+25.9 |
| 1956 | 39.3% | 60.4% | R+21.1 | R+3.7 |
| 1952 | 41.0% | 58.4% | R+17.4 | R+21.0 |
| 1948 | 51.3% | 47.6% | D+3.7 | — |
What defines Bay?
Bay has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (3D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 30.0 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
- College attainment is 22% — 11pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally