Van Buren County, Michigan
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 78.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(11) | 12.5% |
▶Black / African American(5) | 3.5% |
▶Asian(6) | 0.5% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(5) | 0.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2) | 0.8% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.4% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 12.6% | 44.3% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 8.6% | 30.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 4.3% | 15.2% |
| Other | 2.0% | 7.1% |
| Black Protestant | 0.9% | 3.3% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.8% | 2.8% |
| Non-religious | 71.5% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+15.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+12.3 |
| 2016 | Trump+13.9 |
| 2012 | Obama+0.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+8.8 |
| 2004 | Bush+4.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+3.4 |
| 1996 | Clinton+7.2 |
| 1992 | Clinton+7.0 |
Van Buren, Michigan is a county that has a population of 75,795. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+15.1. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 41.7% | 56.9% | R+15.1 | R+2.9 |
| 2020 | 43.0% | 55.3% | R+12.3 | D+1.7 |
| 2016 | 39.8% | 53.8% | R+13.9 | R+14.4 |
| 2012 | 49.6% | 49.2% | D+0.5 | R+8.3 |
| 2008 | 53.5% | 44.7% | D+8.8 | D+13.1 |
| 2004 | 47.3% | 51.6% | R+4.3 | R+1.0 |
| 2000 | 46.8% | 50.2% | R+3.4 | R+10.6 |
| 1996 | 47.7% | 40.6% | D+7.2 | D+0.2 |
| 1992 | 41.2% | 34.3% | D+7.0 | D+22.1 |
| 1988 | 42.0% | 57.2% | R+15.2 | D+14.6 |
| 1984 | 34.8% | 64.6% | R+29.8 | R+9.6 |
| 1980 | 35.8% | 56.0% | R+20.1 | R+6.8 |
| 1976 | 42.7% | 56.0% | R+13.4 | D+18.0 |
| 1972 | 33.2% | 64.6% | R+31.3 | R+15.0 |
| 1968 | 35.4% | 51.8% | R+16.4 | R+32.8 |
| 1964 | 58.1% | 41.6% | D+16.5 | D+45.5 |
| 1960 | 35.2% | 64.2% | R+29.0 | D+11.0 |
| 1956 | 29.8% | 69.7% | R+39.9 | D+2.5 |
| 1952 | 28.5% | 70.9% | R+42.5 | R+3.7 |
| 1948 | 29.1% | 67.9% | R+38.8 | — |
What defines Van Buren?
Van Buren has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- The 2012 election was decided by just 0.5 points — razor-thin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 23.9 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate