Rosebud County, Montana
Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — shifted 3.1pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 31 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(12) | 51.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(5) | 3.7% |
Black / African American | 0.1% |
▶Asian(3) | 2.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(5) | 36.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.6% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 39.8% | 59.2% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 17.6% | 26.1% |
| Other | 8.1% | 12.0% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 7.1% | 10.5% |
| Mainline Protestant | 1.8% | 2.7% |
| Non-religious | 32.7% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+37.1 |
| 2020 | Trump+34.0 |
| 2016 | Trump+36.7 |
| 2012 | Romney+16.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+4.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+12.9 |
| 2000 | Bush+12.6 |
| 1996 | Clinton+7.3 |
| 1992 | Clinton+13.8 |
Rosebud, Montana is a county that has a population of 8,165. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+37.1. Akashic Edge tracks 31 presidential elections here, dating back to 1904.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 29.7% | 66.8% | R+37.1 | R+3.1 |
| 2020 | 31.7% | 65.7% | R+34.0 | D+2.6 |
| 2016 | 28.6% | 65.2% | R+36.7 | R+20.1 |
| 2012 | 40.4% | 56.9% | R+16.5 | R+20.5 |
| 2008 | 50.4% | 46.4% | D+4.0 | D+16.9 |
| 2004 | 42.4% | 55.3% | R+12.9 | R+0.3 |
| 2000 | 40.7% | 53.3% | R+12.6 | R+19.9 |
| 1996 | 45.6% | 38.4% | D+7.3 | R+6.5 |
| 1992 | 42.6% | 28.8% | D+13.8 | D+12.5 |
| 1988 | 49.3% | 48.0% | D+1.2 | D+12.4 |
| 1984 | 43.6% | 54.8% | R+11.2 | D+9.4 |
| 1980 | 33.9% | 54.5% | R+20.6 | R+16.4 |
| 1976 | 47.0% | 51.2% | R+4.2 | D+26.0 |
| 1972 | 33.1% | 63.2% | R+30.2 | R+7.5 |
| 1968 | 33.7% | 56.4% | R+22.7 | R+27.3 |
| 1964 | 52.2% | 47.6% | D+4.6 | D+20.6 |
| 1960 | 41.8% | 57.8% | R+16.0 | D+10.0 |
| 1956 | 37.0% | 63.0% | R+26.0 | D+10.4 |
| 1952 | 31.5% | 67.9% | R+36.4 | R+33.0 |
| 1948 | 47.3% | 50.7% | R+3.4 | — |
What defines Rosebud?
Rosebud has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (1D, 5R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a plurality-minority electorate (49% nonwhite) where demographic change is reshaping the political map.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 37.1% margin
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2008, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 41.1 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate