Cumberland County, Pennsylvania
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — 40 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 80.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(18) | 5.1% |
▶Black / African American(14) | 4.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 5.8% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.7% |
Multiracial / Other | 3.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Mainline Protestant | 13.1% | 31.5% |
| Catholic | 13.1% | 31.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 12.2% | 29.3% |
| Other | 2.6% | 6.3% |
| Orthodox Christian | 0.5% | 1.1% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 0.4% | 1.0% |
| Black Protestant | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 58.3% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+9.4 |
| 2020 | Trump+10.6 |
| 2016 | Trump+17.8 |
| 2012 | Romney+18.4 |
| 2008 | McCain+13.6 |
| 2004 | Bush+28.0 |
| 2000 | Bush+26.9 |
| 1996 | Dole+19.2 |
| 1992 | Bush+19.9 |
Cumberland, Pennsylvania is a county that has a population of 268,323. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+9.4. Akashic Edge tracks 40 presidential elections here, dating back to 1868.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 44.6% | 54.1% | R+9.4 | D+1.1 |
| 2020 | 44.0% | 54.5% | R+10.6 | D+7.2 |
| 2016 | 38.1% | 55.9% | R+17.8 | D+0.6 |
| 2012 | 39.9% | 58.3% | R+18.4 | R+4.8 |
| 2008 | 42.4% | 56.0% | R+13.6 | D+14.5 |
| 2004 | 35.8% | 63.8% | R+28.0 | R+1.1 |
| 2000 | 35.2% | 62.2% | R+26.9 | R+7.7 |
| 1996 | 36.4% | 55.6% | R+19.2 | D+0.6 |
| 1992 | 31.5% | 51.4% | R+19.9 | D+11.4 |
| 1988 | 34.0% | 65.3% | R+31.3 | D+7.9 |
| 1984 | 30.1% | 69.3% | R+39.2 | R+7.5 |
| 1980 | 29.4% | 61.2% | R+31.8 | R+5.4 |
| 1976 | 35.8% | 62.2% | R+26.4 | D+21.3 |
| 1972 | 25.2% | 72.9% | R+47.7 | R+15.0 |
| 1968 | 28.9% | 61.5% | R+32.6 | R+38.4 |
| 1964 | 52.7% | 46.9% | D+5.8 | D+43.8 |
| 1960 | 30.8% | 68.8% | R+38.0 | R+1.4 |
| 1956 | 31.5% | 68.1% | R+36.5 | R+2.0 |
| 1952 | 32.6% | 67.2% | R+34.6 | R+12.3 |
| 1948 | 38.5% | 60.7% | R+22.3 | — |
What defines Cumberland?
Cumberland has been drifting steadily toward Democrats — 9pp bluer over the last 4 presidential cycles. It has a highly educated electorate (40% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Democrats nationwide.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Shifted 8.9 points toward Democrats over the last 4 elections
- Margins have been narrowing — from 17.8pp to 9.4pp over the last 3 presidential elections