Caroline County, Virginia
Latest: 2024
Leans Republican — shifted 4.6pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 61.2% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(13) | 7.7% |
▶Black / African American(6) | 23.8% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.1% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(3) | 0.2% |
Native American / Alaska Native | 0.3% |
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(1) | 0.1% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.9% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Evangelical Protestant | 19.7% | 58.1% |
| Mainline Protestant | 5.4% | 15.8% |
| Catholic | 4.6% | 13.5% |
| Black Protestant | 3.4% | 9.9% |
| Other | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| Non-religious | 66.1% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Trump+8.8 |
| 2020 | Trump+4.2 |
| 2016 | Trump+5.0 |
| 2012 | Obama+8.2 |
| 2008 | Obama+12.0 |
| 2004 | Bush+1.2 |
| 2000 | Gore+5.3 |
| 1996 | Clinton+14.8 |
| 1992 | Clinton+10.6 |
Caroline, Virginia is a county that has a population of 32,098. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+8.8. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 45.1% | 53.9% | R+8.8 | R+4.6 |
| 2020 | 47.0% | 51.2% | R+4.2 | D+0.8 |
| 2016 | 45.1% | 50.2% | R+5.0 | R+13.3 |
| 2012 | 53.3% | 45.1% | D+8.2 | R+3.7 |
| 2008 | 55.4% | 43.5% | D+12.0 | D+13.2 |
| 2004 | 49.0% | 50.2% | R+1.2 | R+6.5 |
| 2000 | 51.7% | 46.4% | D+5.3 | R+9.6 |
| 1996 | 53.5% | 38.7% | D+14.8 | D+4.2 |
| 1992 | 48.6% | 38.0% | D+10.6 | D+8.7 |
| 1988 | 50.6% | 48.7% | D+1.9 | R+0.7 |
| 1984 | 50.7% | 48.0% | D+2.6 | R+13.9 |
| 1980 | 56.7% | 40.2% | D+16.6 | R+13.0 |
| 1976 | 63.9% | 34.4% | D+29.5 | D+36.4 |
| 1972 | 45.9% | 52.8% | R+6.9 | R+29.5 |
| 1968 | 48.9% | 26.3% | D+22.7 | R+5.0 |
| 1964 | 63.6% | 36.0% | D+27.7 | D+1.5 |
| 1960 | 62.7% | 36.5% | D+26.1 | D+28.9 |
| 1956 | 43.3% | 46.1% | R+2.7 | R+8.0 |
| 1952 | 52.3% | 47.0% | D+5.3 | R+20.2 |
| 1948 | 55.7% | 30.3% | D+25.5 | — |
What defines Caroline?
Caroline has been won by both parties in the last 6 presidential elections (2D, 4R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a working-class electorate (22% college-educated) — a demographic increasingly aligned with Republicans nationwide.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 20.8 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
- College attainment is 22% — 11pp below the national average. Similar education levels correlate with Republican lean nationally