Fairfax County, Virginia
Latest: 2024
Safe Democratic — shifted 6.9pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 39 presidential elections on record
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 46.8% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(20) | 17.6% |
▶Black / African American(16) | 9.6% |
▶Asian(6) | 19.9% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(11) | 3.2% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1) | 0.5% |
Multiracial / Other | 5.5% |
Religious adherence
| Tradition | % Pop | % Adherents |
|---|---|---|
| Catholic | 17.0% | 35.4% |
| Evangelical Protestant | 12.9% | 26.8% |
| Other | 10.0% | 20.8% |
| Mainline Protestant | 6.9% | 14.4% |
| LDS (Mormon) | 1.6% | 3.4% |
| Orthodox Christian | 1.1% | 2.2% |
| Black Protestant | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Non-religious | 52.0% | — |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | Harris+35.0 |
| 2020 | Biden+41.9 |
| 2016 | Clinton+35.8 |
| 2012 | Obama+20.5 |
| 2008 | Obama+21.2 |
| 2004 | Kerry+7.3 |
| 2000 | Bush+1.4 |
| 1996 | Dole+1.6 |
| 1992 | Bush+2.7 |
Fairfax, Virginia is a county that has a population of 1,147,837. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+35.0. Akashic Edge tracks 39 presidential elections here, dating back to 1872.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 66.1% | 31.1% | D+35.0 | R+6.9 |
| 2020 | 69.9% | 28.0% | D+41.9 | D+6.0 |
| 2016 | 64.4% | 28.6% | D+35.8 | D+15.3 |
| 2012 | 59.6% | 39.1% | D+20.5 | R+0.7 |
| 2008 | 60.1% | 38.9% | D+21.2 | D+13.9 |
| 2004 | 53.2% | 45.9% | D+7.3 | D+8.7 |
| 2000 | 47.5% | 48.9% | R+1.4 | D+0.2 |
| 1996 | 46.6% | 48.2% | R+1.6 | D+1.1 |
| 1992 | 41.6% | 44.3% | R+2.7 | D+20.1 |
| 1988 | 38.3% | 61.1% | R+22.8 | D+3.2 |
| 1984 | 36.8% | 62.9% | R+26.1 | D+0.6 |
| 1980 | 30.8% | 57.4% | R+26.6 | R+17.7 |
| 1976 | 44.7% | 53.6% | R+8.9 | D+24.9 |
| 1972 | 32.4% | 66.3% | R+33.9 | R+23.1 |
| 1968 | 38.2% | 49.0% | R+10.8 | R+33.3 |
| 1964 | 61.2% | 38.7% | D+22.5 | D+26.1 |
| 1960 | 48.1% | 51.7% | R+3.6 | D+10.2 |
| 1956 | 41.9% | 55.7% | R+13.8 | D+8.2 |
| 1952 | 39.0% | 60.9% | R+21.9 | R+9.2 |
| 1948 | 39.2% | 52.0% | R+12.8 | — |
What defines Fairfax?
It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.
County in State Context
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Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Democratic in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Democratic landslide with a 35.0% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 21.4 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate