Safe Democratic — shifted 3.6pp toward Democrats in 2024 — 34 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
34K
COMPETITIVENESS
Safe D
2024 PRES
D+45.1
TURNOUT
84.5%
#1 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$74K
COLLEGE+
44%
Place Story
Demographically distinctive: 85% non-Hispanic white (+27pp vs national)
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 13.3pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 14pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.