Leans Democratic — 34 presidential elections on record
POPULATION
131K
COMPETITIVENESS
Lean D
2024 PRES
D+8.8
TURNOUT
68.8%
#23 in state
MEDIAN INCOME
$89K
COLLEGE+
30%
Place Story
Leans Democratic since 2008
Competitive with a modest baseline — persuasion matters on the margin.
Ticket-splitting: Senate ran 19.1pp behind Governor
Persuadable voters present — downballot races can run independent of presidential.
Evangelical edge: 15pp over Catholics
Correlates nationally with Republican-leaning behavior.
Atypical: older but Democratic-leaning (median age 42, D+7.1 avg)
Hypothesis — likely college-town or affluent-suburb effect.