How did MD-04, Maryland vote in the 2024 presidential election?

MD-04, Maryland voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+73.6. The Democratic candidate received 240,851 votes and the Republican candidate received 33,354 out of 281,807 total votes cast, a 8.4-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is MD-04, Maryland's political history?

MD-04, Maryland has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 8.4 points in 2024.

What are the demographics of MD-04, Maryland?

MD-04, Maryland has a population of 770,533 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 10.7% non-Hispanic white, 25.1% Hispanic, 55.9% Black.

Which places are most similar to MD-04, Maryland?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar congressional districts to MD-04, Maryland are MD-07, TX-18, IL-07. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Maryland's 4th Congressional District

Maryland

Safe Democratic — presidential lean D+73.6 in 2024

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POPULATION
771K
PRES MARGIN
D+73.6
2024
LEAN
Safe D

Place Story

What defines Maryland's 4th Congressional District

Methodology

Reliably Democratic since 2008
- Safe D
- 5 straight D wins
Mobilization target, not persuasion target.
Demographically distinctive: 11% non-Hispanic white (-47pp vs national)
- 11% non-Hispanic white (-47pp vs national)
- 56% Black (+44pp vs national)
Biggest swing: R+8.4 in 2024
- 2020 → 2024

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside MD-04 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Peer discovery

Similar districts

Districts with comparable demographics and electoral dynamics.

TBD_8

MD-07

Maryland

Similarity99%

+7 more

TX-18 and others

Similarity0%

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Historian Query

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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Maryland's 4th Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MD-04Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

Black 55.9%Hispanic 25.1%White (Non-Hispanic) 10.7%Asian 5.2%Multiracial 1.9%Native American 1.1%

Group	MD-04	State	National
▶Black / African American(16)	55.9%	29.4%	12.2%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	25.1%	12.5%	19.3%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	10.7%	46.6%	57.4%
▶Asian(6)	5.2%	6.6%	6.0%
Multiracial / Other	1.9%	4.5%	4.0%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(2)	1.1%	0.4%	0.9%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9)	0.8%	—	0.9%
▶Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander(3)	0.1%	<0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

MD-04 vs Maryland vs National771K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

771K

local

771KState 6.2MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.23%

local

0.23%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

77.8%

local

77.8%State 75.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $106,179National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 9.5%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 43.5%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 67.6%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 39.5 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 14.8%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 16.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 16.6%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 21.1%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 78.9%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in MD-04

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

47.0%

vs Previous

-2.9pp

Voting-Age Pop

599,135

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is MD-04?

Safe DAvg margin: D+79.1 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+80.1

2012

D+83.2

2016

D+81.7

2020

D+82.0

2024

D+73.6

Elasticity

9.6pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+80.1

Maryland Comparison Set

Other Maryland Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

14 sibling districts

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