North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District
North Dakota · Latest: 2024
Safe Republican — flipped 2 times in 25 elections
Race & ancestry
| Group | % |
|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 81.7% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 4.7% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 3.4% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.7% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.5% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 4.4% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.1% |
Key demographics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Median household income | $77K |
| Bachelor's or higher | 32.7% |
| English only at home | 87.4% |
| Other language at home | 6.3% |
| Foreign-born | 4.7% |
Presidential results
| Year | Result |
|---|---|
| 2024 | R+36.6 |
| 2020 | R+32.9 |
| 2016 | R+35.7 |
| 2012 | R+19.8 |
| 2008 | R+8.6 |
North Dakota's At-Large Congressional District is a congressional district that has a population of 784,841. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+36.6. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.
| Year | Dem % | Rep % | Margin | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 30.6% | 67.2% | R+36.6 | R+3.7 |
| 2020 | 32.1% | 65.0% | R+32.9 | D+2.8 |
| 2016 | 27.2% | 63.0% | R+35.7 | R+15.9 |
| 2012 | 38.6% | 58.4% | R+19.8 | R+11.2 |
| 2008 | 44.3% | 52.9% | R+8.6 | — |
What defines ND-AL?
ND-AL is a deep Republican urban geography that has voted Republican in every presidential election since 2008. It shifted 3.7pp toward Republicans between 2020 and 2024. Its 785K residents are moderately educated (33% hold a bachelor's degree).
District in State Context
Precinct Deep Dive
2024 / 2020 precinct vintages
See how each split precinct fragment inside ND-AL voted, swung, and lines up demographically.
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Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian
Key Insights
High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
- Has voted Republican in the last 5 presidential elections
- Latest election (2024) was a Republican landslide with a 36.6% margin
- Highly elastic — margins have ranged 28.0 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate
Who Lives Here
A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
| Group | ND-AL | State | National |
|---|---|---|---|
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13) | 81.7% | 81.7% | 57.4% |
▶Hispanic / Latino(17) | 4.7% | 4.7% | 19.3% |
▶Native American / Alaska Native(6) | 4.4% | 4.4% | 0.9% |
Multiracial / Other | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
▶Black / African American(12) | 3.4% | 3.4% | 12.2% |
▶Asian(6) | 1.7% | 1.7% | 6.0% |
▶Middle Eastern / North African(9) | 0.5% | — | 0.9% |
Method notes
Demographics
Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
Population & electorate
Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.
Total population
785K
Share of U.S. population
0.23%
Voting-age population
72.9%
Economic profile
Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.
Median household income
$76,657
Poverty rate
10.8%
College degree
32.7%
Homeownership
62.9%
Community profile
Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.
Median age
35.9 yrs
Age 18–29
18.2%
Age 65+
16.5%
Foreign born
4.7%
Non-English at home
6.7%
English only
93.3%
How competitive is ND-AL?
Safe RAvg margin: R+35.1 (last 3 elections)
2008
R+8.6
2012
R+19.8
2016
R+35.7
2020
R+32.9
2024
R+36.6
28.0pp
0
R+26.7
Do voters in ND-AL split their tickets?
Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.
Heavy splitting (41/100)
| Offices | Margin A | Margin B | Split |
|---|---|---|---|
| President vs House | R+36.6 | R+38.9 | 2.3pp |
Max divergence: 32.6pp|Avg divergence: 11.9pp
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