How did VA-10, Virginia vote in the 2024 presidential election?

VA-10, Virginia voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+11.2. The Democratic candidate received 264,739 votes and the Republican candidate received 210,028 out of 490,337 total votes cast, a 9.1-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is VA-10, Virginia's political history?

VA-10, Virginia has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. Democrats have won 4 and Republicans 1 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 11.0 points in 2016.

What are the demographics of VA-10, Virginia?

VA-10, Virginia has a population of 802,125 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 51.7% non-Hispanic white, 18.9% Hispanic, 8.7% Black. About 56% of residents hold a bachelor's degree or higher. Median household income is $162,359.

Virginia's 10th Congressional District

Virginia · Latest: 2024↓ R+2.0 vs 2022

Competitive — flipped 2 times in 25 elections

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Race & ancestry

Group	%
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	51.7%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	18.9%
▶Black / African American(16)	8.7%
▶Asian(6)	15.5%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	4.1%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.4%
Multiracial / Other	4.8%

View full demographics →

Key demographics

Metric	Value
Median household income	$162K
Bachelor's or higher	55.9%
English only at home	62.8%
Other language at home	31.0%
Foreign-born	25.0%

View full demographics →

Presidential results

Year	Result
2024	D+11.2
2020	D+20.3
2016	D+9.8
2012	R+1.2
2008	D+2.8

View full election history →

Virginia's 10th Congressional District is a congressional district that has a population of 802,125. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+11.2. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.

Virginia's 10th Congressional District Presidential Election Results, 2008–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	54.0%	42.8%	D+11.2	R+9.1
2020	59.1%	38.9%	D+20.3	D+10.4
2016	51.6%	41.8%	D+9.8	D+11.0
2012	49.4%	50.6%	R+1.2	R+4.0
2008	50.9%	48.1%	D+2.8	—

Political Identity

What defines VA-10?

VA-10 has been won by both parties in the last 5 presidential elections (4D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a diverse, highly educated electorate — the core of the modern Democratic coalition.

District in State Context

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Precinct Deep Dive

2024 / 2020 precinct vintages

See how each split precinct fragment inside VA-10 voted, swung, and lines up demographically.

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Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore this district's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Virginia's 10th Congressional District voted in House elections since 2000?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

The 2012 election was decided by just 1.2 points — razor-thin
Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2012
Highly elastic — margins have ranged 21.4 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

VA-10Census ACS 2024Ancestry detail available

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 51.7%Hispanic 18.9%Asian 15.5%Black 8.7%Multiracial 4.8%Native American 0.4%

Group	VA-10	State	National
▶White (Non-Hispanic)(13)	51.7%	58.4%	57.4%
▶Hispanic / Latino(20)	18.9%	11.0%	19.3%
▶Asian(6)	15.5%	6.9%	6.0%
▶Black / African American(16)	8.7%	18.6%	12.2%
Multiracial / Other	4.8%	4.7%	4.0%
▶Middle Eastern / North African(10)	4.1%	—	0.9%
▶Native American / Alaska Native(1)	0.4%	0.4%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Click rows to expand ancestry detail. Ancestry from ACS B04006, B03001, B02020, B02016. Totals may differ from race — individuals can report multiple ancestries.

Black / African American (estimated remainder) is derived as Black population share minus reported Sub-Saharan African and West Indian ancestry. It is shown as an estimated ancestry detail, not a standalone Census ancestry category.

MENA estimated from ancestry reporting — Census does not have a separate MENA race category. Not shown in bar (overlaps with other race groups).

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

VA-10 vs Virginia vs National802K residents

56% of adults hold a bachelor's degree — 23pp above the national average. Places with similar education levels vote D+25 on average nationally.

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

802K

local

802KState 8.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.24%

local

0.24%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

73.4%

local

73.4%State 75.6%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

$162,359

local

$162,359State $99,933National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

5.0%

local

5.0%State 10.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

55.9%

local

55.9%State 42.3%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

77.9%

local

77.9%State 67.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

38.3 yrs

local

38.3 yrsState 39.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

13.3%

local

13.3%State 15.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

12.1%

local

12.1%State 16.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

25.0%

local

25.0%State 13.1%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

33.1%

local

33.1%State 17.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

66.9%

local

66.9%State 82.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in VA-10

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

83.3%

vs Previous

+9.5pp

Voting-Age Pop

588,939

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is VA-10?

Likely DAvg margin: D+13.7 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+2.8

2012

R+1.2

2016

D+9.8

2020

D+20.3

2024

D+11.2

Elasticity

21.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+8.6

Ticket-Splitting

Do voters in VA-10 split their tickets?

Divergence between offices in the same election reveals persuadable voters.

ConsistencyHeavy splitting (22/100)

2024 Office Comparisons

Offices	Margin A	Margin B	Split
President vs House	D+11.2	D+4.6	6.6pp

Average divergence across office pairs: 14.1pp

Virginia Comparison Set

Other Virginia Districts

Compare the rest of the delegation at a glance, with each card anchored to the latest House margin on current district pages.

20 sibling districts

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