akashic
1876–2024
Buffalo·New York

Buffalo moved 5 points toward the Republican candidate between 2020 and 2024.

Lake Erie's post-industrial core anchors a shifting western New York electorate

1876 — 2024·38 elections
NY
LatestR+6in 2024
TypologyIndustrial Catholic Metrocluster typology
Population1,603,4312024 ACS

Buffalo, New York: Industrial Catholic Metro market. In 2024, voted R+6%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1924.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+6MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Industrial Catholic MetroAkashic typology
Population
1,603,4312024 5-year
Median household income
$69,7272024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
79.0%2024 5-year
Black
9.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
5.7%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+41 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+44 in 1920MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Buffalo
TrumpR+6
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Buffalo, NYA map of the constituent counties of Buffalo, NY, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Potter County, PA · R+62Allegany County, NY · R+43Wyoming County, NY · R+48Cattaraugus County, NY · R+33Orleans County, NY · R+40Genesee County, NY · R+34McKean County, PA · R+47Erie County, NY · D+10Niagara County, NY · R+15Chautauqua County, NY · R+22
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican52.3%401,895
Kamala HarrisDemocratic46.5%357,533
OtherAll other candidates1.1%8,647
D+60
R+60
10 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: −5.8% in 2024.flipped R · 2016−5.8%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884No data
1888No data
1892−8.8%
1896−22.5%
1900−16.6%
1904−26.7%
1908−17.8%
1912+6.9%
1916−16.1%
1920−43.6%
1924−44.2%
1928−22.9%
1932−14.0%
1936−2.9%
1940−10.1%
1944−7.4%
1948−4.4%
1952−21.3%
1956−33.4%
1960+2.3%
1964+41.1%
1968+7.8%
1972−15.3%
1976−3.6%
1980+2.9%
1984−8.8%
1988+2.0%
1992+7.1%
1996+15.1%
2000+7.8%
2004+3.4%
2008+7.3%
2012+5.3%
2016−8.0%
2020−1.2%
2024−5.8%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−5.8%
357,533401,895768,075
R
−1.2%
381,423390,985787,513
R
−8.0%
305,836362,254704,552
D
+5.3%
352,185316,170681,000
D
+7.3%
386,574333,269731,660
D
+3.4%
377,015351,697743,912
D
+7.8%
364,853308,999711,520
D
+15.1%
344,935241,835682,327
D
+7.1%
293,791240,859747,478
D
+2.0%
354,960340,962701,170
R
−8.8%
340,865406,908749,704
D
+2.9%
326,396306,291691,459
R
−3.6%
352,287378,799735,865
R
−15.3%
322,660439,338764,545
D
+7.8%
363,185306,937722,775
D
+41.1%
535,902223,249760,222
D
+2.3%
408,951390,610800,246
R
−33.4%
250,897502,503753,495
R
−21.3%
293,682452,805748,031
R
−4.4%
290,475317,857624,980
R
−7.4%
293,057339,931635,193
R
−10.1%
286,815351,338640,072
R
−2.9%
281,133298,327592,053
R
−14.0%
206,996277,619503,360
R
−22.9%
189,618307,190514,042
R
−44.2%
74,210240,162375,085
R
−43.6%
75,014214,487319,731
R
−16.1%
83,906117,896210,835
O
+6.9%
65,23452,473186,077
R
−17.8%
82,848120,553212,347
R
−26.7%
67,640120,446197,798
R
−16.6%
78,652111,212196,482
R
−22.5%
67,400108,158180,993
R
−8.8%
68,36482,890164,811
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Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.5%
Irish
15.2%
Italian
13.4%
Polish
11.9%
English
9.7%
American
3.6%
French
1.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 41.4 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.8%
85+
1.6%
2.5%
75–84
3.2%
5.7%
65–74
6.1%
7.0%
55–64
7.3%
5.8%
45–54
5.8%
6.1%
35–44
6.1%
6.6%
25–34
6.4%
4.5%
18–24
4.4%
7.7%
5–17
7.3%
2.6%
<5
2.5%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$69,727
Buffalo ranks near the middle of US counties.
Buffalo$69,727
New York$85,974
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
14.2%
Children face moderate poverty.
Children under 1819.0%
Working age (18–64)13.1%
Seniors (65+)11.3%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
90.9%
speak English only
Other Indo-European3.5%
Spanish3.0%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.3%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
36.2%
Other Christian
6.2%
Mainline Protestant
3.9%
Non-Christian
3.1%
Methodist
2.9%
Baptist
2.5%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.0%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 43.2% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

The Buffalo media market blends a revitalizing urban center with rural and small-city counties that lean differently, making it a reliable bellwether for statewide margin tracking across western New York.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of forty-one points in 1964 and a Republican high of forty-four points in 1924. Between 2020 and 2024 the market moved five points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was six points.

A population of 1,603,431, a 79% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $69,727 describe the market.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Buffalo, New York. Akashic. https://akashic.app/dma/514/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Buffalo, New York vote in 2024?
In 2024, Buffalo, New York voted Republican by 5.8 points (R+6), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 768,075 votes cast, 357,533 went Democratic and 401,895 went Republican.
What is Buffalo, New York's political typology?
Akashic places Buffalo, New York in the "Industrial Catholic Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the market has voted Democratic 11 times, Republican 22 times, and other 1 times.
When did Buffalo, New York last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Buffalo, New York voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Buffalo, New York?
Buffalo, New York has a population of 1,603,431 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Buffalo, New York?
Median household income in Buffalo, New York is $69,727 — below the national median of $80,734. The New York state median is $85,974.
What is the political history of Buffalo, New York?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Buffalo, New York from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 11 went Democratic and 22 went Republican. The market's typology — "Industrial Catholic Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.