How did VA-HD-38, Virginia vote in the 2024 presidential election?

VA-HD-38, Virginia voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+24.0. Kamala D Harris received 21,314 votes and Donald Trump received 12,949 out of 34,909 total votes cast, a 4.4-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is VA-HD-38, Virginia's political history?

VA-HD-38, Virginia has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. It has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2008. The largest single-election swing was 7.1 points in 2020.

What are the demographics of VA-HD-38, Virginia?

VA-HD-38, Virginia has a population of 87,341 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 52.6% non-Hispanic white, 9.1% Hispanic, 30.0% Black.

Which places are most similar to VA-HD-38, Virginia?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar state house districts to VA-HD-38, Virginia are Florida State House District 99, North Carolina State House District 106, Michigan State House District 53. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Virginia House of Delegates District 38

Virginia · Latest: 2024↓ R+4.4 vs 2020

Safe Democratic — shifted 4.4pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 87K residents

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Similarity Explorer

Similar state house districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Florida State House District 99FL

Urban Democratic

D+44.6

Similarity score94%

North Carolina State House District 106NC

Urban Democratic

D+42.1

Similarity score93%

Michigan State House District 53MI

Urban Democratic

D+28.8

Similarity score93%

Kentucky State House District 77KY

Urban Democratic

D+44.0

Similarity score93%

Illinois State House District 31IL

Diverse urban democratic 2

D+42.2

Similarity score93%

Missouri State House District 81MO

Urban Democratic

D+44.1

Similarity score93%

Missouri State House District 28MO

Urban Democratic

D+32.7

Similarity score93%

North Carolina State House District 39NC

Suburban Competitive

D+23.0

Similarity score92%

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore VA-HD-38's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Virginia House of Delegates District 38 voted in presidential elections?”

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

VA-HD-38Census ACS 2024

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 52.6%Black 30.0%Hispanic 9.1%Multiracial 5.3%Asian 2.5%Native American 0.5%

Group	VA-HD-38	State	National
White (Non-Hispanic)	52.6%	58.4%	57.4%
Black / African American	30.0%	18.6%	12.2%
Hispanic / Latino	9.1%	11.0%	19.3%
Multiracial / Other	5.3%	4.7%	4.0%
Asian	2.5%	6.9%	6.0%
Native American / Alaska Native	0.5%	0.4%	0.9%
Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in Virginia House of Delegates District 38? 87,341 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

VA-HD-38 vs Virginia vs National87K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

87K

local

87KState 8.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.03%

local

0.03%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

78.5%

local

78.5%State 75.6%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $99,933National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 10.0%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 42.3%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 67.3%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 39.3 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.9%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 16.7%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 13.1%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 17.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 82.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in VA-HD-38

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

50.9%

vs Previous

-2.2pp

Voting-Age Pop

68,522

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is VA-HD-38?

Safe DAvg margin: D+24.5 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+27.3

2012

D+27.6

2016

D+21.2

2020

D+28.3

2024

D+24.0

Elasticity

7.1pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+25.7

Other Virginia State House Districts

99 total

Name	Margin ↓
VA-HD-79	D+78.9
VA-HD-54	D+60.8
VA-HD-01	D+59.5
VA-HD-05	D+58.9
VA-HD-02	D+57.5
VA-HD-03	D+56.6
VA-HD-78	D+54.7
VA-HD-92	D+52.4
VA-HD-87	D+51.9
VA-HD-80	D+51.5
VA-HD-77	D+50.6
VA-HD-93	D+48.3
VA-HD-04	D+48.0
VA-HD-13	D+46.3
VA-HD-07	D+44.6
VA-HD-17	D+42.5
VA-HD-12	D+41.7
VA-HD-16	D+38.7
VA-HD-85	D+37.1
VA-HD-08	D+35.9
VA-HD-88	D+35.7
VA-HD-11	D+35.4
VA-HD-23	D+35.2
VA-HD-91	D+35.1
VA-HD-81	D+34.6

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