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Maine State Senate District 15

Maine State Senate District 15

Maine · Latest: 2024↓ R+3.3 vs 2020

Competitive — shifted 3.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 37K residents

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Maine State Senate District 15 is a state senate district that has a population of 37,443. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Republican with a margin of R+3.3. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.

Maine State Senate District 15 Presidential Election Results, 2008–2024
YearDem %Rep %MarginSwing
202447.4%50.7%R+3.3R+3.3
2020*48.4%48.5%R+0.1D+4.7
2016*43.7%48.6%R+4.8R+17.8
2012*56.5%43.5%D+13.0R+0.7
2008*55.7%42.0%D+13.7—

* Pre-2022 results projected onto current district boundaries. Actual boundaries at the time of the election may have differed.

Political Identity

What defines ME-SD-15?

ME-SD-15 has been won by both parties in the last 5 presidential elections (2D, 3R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a working-class, predominantly white electorate — strong Republican base territory.

Similarity Explorer

Similar state senate districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.
8 visible matches
Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore ME-SD-15's political evolution with the Historian
Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.
  • The 2020 election was decided by just 0.1 points — razor-thin
  • Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2012, Republicans in 2024
  • Turnout decreased by 69.7 percentage points since the previous presidential election
Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.
ME-SD-15Census ACS 2024
Census race profile
Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.
Expand rows for ancestry detail
White (Non-Hispanic) 90.8%Multiracial 4.5%Hispanic 2.1%Asian 1.4%Black 0.8%Native American 0.4%
GroupME-SD-15StateNational
White (Non-Hispanic)
90.8%89.9%57.4%
Multiracial / Other
4.5%4.5%4.0%
Hispanic / Latino
2.1%2.2%19.3%
Asian
1.4%1.2%6.0%
Black / African American
0.8%1.8%12.2%
Native American / Alaska Native
0.4%0.4%0.9%
Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in Maine State Senate District 15? 37,443 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.
ME-SD-15 vs Maine vs National37K residents
Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population
Local vs state vs U.S.
37K
local
37KState 1.4MNational 334.9M
Share of U.S. population
Local vs state vs U.S.
0.01%
local
0.01%National 100%
Voting-age population
Local vs state vs U.S.
81.5%
local
81.5%State 79.1%National 75.7%
Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState $76,630National $83,960
Poverty rate
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 10.8%National 12.5%
College degree
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 36.1%National 35.6%
Homeownership
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 74.3%National 65.2%
Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 44.8 yrsNational 39.1 yrs
Age 18–29
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 13.7%National 15.7%
Age 65+
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 22.4%National 17.0%
Foreign born
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 4.1%National 14.1%
Non-English at home
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 6.0%National 22.2%
English only
Local vs state vs U.S.
N/A
local
N/AState 94.0%National 77.8%
Voter Turnout

Turnout in ME-SD-15

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.
2024 Turnout
71.6%
vs Previous
-69.7pp
Voting-Age Pop
30,504
History
2008–2024
Competitiveness

How competitive is ME-SD-15?

Tilt RAvg margin: R+2.7 (last 3 elections)
2008
D+13.7
2012
D+13.0
2016
R+4.8
2020
R+0.1
2024
R+3.3
Elasticity
18.5pp
margin range
Party Flips
1
last 30 years
5-Elec Avg
D+3.7

Other Maine State Senate Districts

34 total
NameMargin ↓
ME-SD-28D+65.1
ME-SD-27D+59.4
ME-SD-29D+52.2
ME-SD-23D+41.1
ME-SD-25D+34.5
ME-SD-35D+29.1
ME-SD-30D+26.5
ME-SD-07D+21.2
ME-SD-12D+19.9
ME-SD-31D+17.4
ME-SD-24D+15.5
ME-SD-34D+14.8
ME-SD-09D+10.5
ME-SD-26D+10.5
ME-SD-32D+9.8
ME-SD-13D+8.3
ME-SD-21D+8.2
ME-SD-11D+3.4
ME-SD-16D+1.9
ME-SD-20D+0.9
ME-SD-14D+0.2
ME-SD-08R+2.2
ME-SD-18R+9.2
ME-SD-33R+9.9
ME-SD-10R+9.9
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