How did MN-SD-45, Minnesota vote in the 2024 presidential election?

MN-SD-45, Minnesota voted Democratic in 2024 with a margin of D+16.1. Kamala D Harris received 33,171 votes and Donald Trump received 23,761 out of 58,318 total votes cast, a 12.3-point shift toward Republicans from 2020.

What is MN-SD-45, Minnesota's political history?

MN-SD-45, Minnesota has 5 presidential elections on record, spanning 2008 to 2024. Democrats have won 4 and Republicans 1 of those contests. The largest single-election swing was 21.8 points in 2020.

What are the demographics of MN-SD-45, Minnesota?

MN-SD-45, Minnesota has a population of 85,939 according to the 2020 Census. The racial composition is 87.0% non-Hispanic white, 3.2% Hispanic, 2.3% Black.

Which places are most similar to MN-SD-45, Minnesota?

Based on demographic and electoral similarity analysis, the three most similar state senate districts to MN-SD-45, Minnesota are Minnesota State Senate District 36, Minnesota State Senate District 41, Massachusetts State Senate District D14. Similarity is computed using a vector embedding of demographic, economic, and electoral characteristics.

Minnesota State Senate District 45

Minnesota · Latest: 2024↓ R+12.3 vs 2020

Safe Democratic — shifted 12.3pp toward Republicans in 2024 — 86K residents

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Minnesota State Senate District 45 is a state senate district that has a population of 85,939. In the 2024 presidential election, it voted Democratic with a margin of D+16.1. Akashic Edge tracks 5 presidential elections here, dating back to 2008.

Minnesota State Senate District 45 Presidential Election Results, 2008–2024
Year	Dem %	Rep %	Margin	Swing
2024	56.9%	40.7%	D+16.1	R+12.3
2020*	63.2%	34.7%	D+28.5	D+21.8
2016*	48.9%	42.2%	D+6.6	D+11.5
2012*	47.6%	52.4%	R+4.9	R+7.3
2008*	50.4%	48.0%	D+2.5	—

* Pre-2022 results projected onto current district boundaries. Actual boundaries at the time of the election may have differed.

Political Identity

What defines MN-SD-45?

MN-SD-45 has been won by both parties in the last 5 presidential elections (4D, 1R) — a genuine swing geography. It has a working-class, predominantly white electorate — strong Republican base territory.

Similarity Explorer

Similar state senate districts

Nearest neighbors matched on the same place-page feature set used across the dossier system.

8 visible matches

Minnesota State Senate District 36MN

Urban Competitive

D+9.1

Similarity score96%

Minnesota State Senate District 41MN

Urban Competitive

D+1.5

Similarity score92%

Massachusetts State Senate District D14MA

Urban Competitive

D+23.0

Similarity score92%

Minnesota State Senate District 33MN

Urban Competitive

D+0.5

Similarity score91%

Massachusetts State Senate District D04MA

Urban Competitive

D+7.9

Similarity score91%

Missouri State Senate District 1MO

Urban Competitive

D+8.4

Similarity score91%

Massachusetts State Senate District D31MA

Urban Competitive

D+18.2

Similarity score90%

Minnesota State Senate District 40MN

Urban Democratic

D+32.8

Similarity score90%

Historian Query

Ask the Historian

Explore MN-SD-45's political evolution with the Historian

“How has Minnesota State Senate District 45 voted in presidential elections?”

Automated Readout

Key Insights

High-confidence patterns distilled from this geography's election history.

Swung 12.3 points toward Republican between 2020 and 2024
Won by both parties in recent history — Democrats most recently in 2024, Republicans in 2012
Highly elastic — margins have ranged 33.4 points across recent elections, suggesting a volatile electorate

Race & Ancestry

Who Lives Here

A race-first Census view with ancestry expansion where source coverage is strong enough to support detail.

MN-SD-45Census ACS 2024

Census race profile

Major Census race and ethnicity groups shown as a share of total population.

Expand rows for ancestry detail

White (Non-Hispanic) 87.0%Multiracial 4.0%Hispanic 3.2%Asian 3.2%Black 2.3%

Group	MN-SD-45	State	National
White (Non-Hispanic)	87.0%	75.9%	57.4%
Multiracial / Other	4.0%	4.7%	4.0%
Hispanic / Latino	3.2%	6.4%	19.3%
Asian	3.2%	5.1%	6.0%
Black / African American	2.3%	7.0%	12.2%
Native American / Alaska Native	0.2%	0.9%	0.9%

Method notes

Census treats race and Hispanic/Latino origin as separate questions. Race categories other than Hispanic reflect total populations (small Hispanic overlap in Black, Asian, AIAN, NHPI). “Multiracial / Other” is derived as a non-overlapping remainder.

Detailed ancestry data unavailable for this geography.

Who lives in Minnesota State Senate District 45? 85,939 residents as of the 2020 Census.

Demographic Comparison

Demographics

Read this geography's profile in three layers: local, state (where available), and national baseline.

MN-SD-45 vs Minnesota vs National86K residents

Population & electorate

Scale, voting-age share, and this geography's footprint inside the national electorate.

Total population

Local vs state vs U.S.

86K

local

86KState 5.7MNational 334.9M

Share of U.S. population

Local vs state vs U.S.

0.03%

local

0.03%National 100%

Voting-age population

Local vs state vs U.S.

78.5%

local

78.5%State 74.8%National 75.7%

Economic profile

Income, attainment, and ownership indicators that often shape coalition structure and turnout behavior.

Median household income

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState $90,564National $83,960

Poverty rate

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 9.3%National 12.5%

College degree

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 39.4%National 35.6%

Homeownership

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 72.2%National 65.2%

Community profile

Age structure, language use, and nativity signals that explain how this geography differs from state and nation.

Median age

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 39.0 yrsNational 39.1 yrs

Age 18–29

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 15.1%National 15.7%

Age 65+

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 17.3%National 17.0%

Foreign born

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 8.7%National 14.1%

Non-English at home

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 12.4%National 22.2%

English only

Local vs state vs U.S.

N/A

local

N/AState 87.6%National 77.8%

Voter Turnout

Turnout in MN-SD-45

Estimated using 2020 Census voting-age population.

2024 Turnout

86.4%

vs Previous

-77.3pp

Voting-Age Pop

67,483

History

2008–2024

Competitiveness

How competitive is MN-SD-45?

Safe DAvg margin: D+17.1 (last 3 elections)

2008

D+2.5

2012

R+4.9

2016

D+6.6

2020

D+28.5

2024

D+16.1

Elasticity

33.4pp

margin range

Party Flips

last 30 years

5-Elec Avg

D+9.8

Other Minnesota State Senate Districts

66 total

Name	Margin ↓
MN-SD-61	D+77.2
MN-SD-63	D+76.8
MN-SD-62	D+75.9
MN-SD-60	D+68.3
MN-SD-64	D+67.4
MN-SD-59	D+66.4
MN-SD-66	D+58.5
MN-SD-65	D+54.4
MN-SD-46	D+48.6
MN-SD-43	D+45.0
MN-SD-51	D+39.1
MN-SD-08	D+39.0
MN-SD-38	D+39.0
MN-SD-67	D+37.4
MN-SD-50	D+35.5
MN-SD-39	D+34.3
MN-SD-40	D+32.8
MN-SD-52	D+28.5
MN-SD-49	D+28.4
MN-SD-42	D+26.8
MN-SD-25	D+21.9
MN-SD-47	D+21.8
MN-SD-44	D+20.5
MN-SD-56	D+18.2
MN-SD-53	D+16.9

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