PA, the full state outline.

Pennsylvania moved 12.0 points right between 2008 and 2024, ending at R+1.7 after starting at D+10.3 under Obama. The state crossed the midline in 2016, when the margin swung 6.1 points right in a single cycle from D+5.4 to R+0.7. Biden pulled it back to D+1.2 in 2020, a 1.9-point recovery that proved temporary. The 2020→2024 cycle erased that gain, shifting 2.9 points right to land at R+1.7. Three of the last four presidential cycles have landed between R+1.7 and D+1.2.

Pennsylvania is 74.5% white across 13.0 million people, with a non-Hispanic white share near 65.8% — the demographic baseline behind the state's perennial swing-state behavior. Median household income sits at $80,054 and 35.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree. Foreign-born residents account for 7.7% and the poverty rate runs 11.7%. The profile — heavily white, moderately credentialed, middle-income — is the structural reason Pennsylvania keeps landing within a few points of the national margin cycle after cycle.