One moment…
One moment…
Four Democratic presidential coalitions across 24 years, county-by-county, with era-matched demographic controls — what overlaps, what…
Scroll to read the full answer
National margins, side by side
Subjects across every demographic quintile
| Dimension · quintile | Gore 2000 | Kerry 2004 | Clinton 2016 | Harris 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race & ethnicity | ||||
| White share · Q1 | D+14.8 | D+12.7 | — | D+17.3 |
| White share · Q2 | R+1.3 | R+4.6 | — | R+5.7 |
| White share · Q3 | R+11.1 | R+14.9 | — | R+18.3 |
| White share · Q4 | R+12.9 | R+16.5 | — | R+30.9 |
| White share · Q5 | R+16.3 | R+19.6 | — | R+43.5 |
| Black share · Q1 | R+23.4 | R+25.0 | — | R+36.4 |
| Black share · Q2 | R+14.9 | R+16.5 | — | R+22.4 |
| Black share · Q3 | R+4.9 | R+8.1 | — | R+10.8 |
| Black share · Q4 | D+0.4 | R+3.9 | — | R+0.4 |
| Black share · Q5 | D+12.6 | D+10.7 | — | D+12.2 |
| Hispanic share · Q1 | R+9.9 | R+13.3 | — | R+35.5 |
| Hispanic share · Q2 | R+9.9 | R+13.9 | — | R+22.3 |
| Hispanic share · Q3 | R+5.5 | R+9.0 | — | R+13.2 |
| Hispanic share · Q4 | R+1.1 | R+3.8 | — | D+2.2 |
| Hispanic share · Q5 | D+8.2 | D+5.4 | — | D+7.9 |
| Asian share · Q1 | R+15.1 | R+20.9 | — | R+47.9 |
| Asian share · Q2 | R+16.6 | R+23.2 | — | R+43.1 |
| Asian share · Q3 | R+15.3 | R+20.7 | — | R+35.8 |
| Asian share · Q4 | R+12.5 | R+17.1 | — | R+23.3 |
| Asian share · Q5 | D+6.9 | D+4.8 | — | D+11.9 |
| Non-Hispanic-white share · Q1 | — | — | — | — |
| Non-Hispanic-white share · Q2 | — | — | — | — |
| Non-Hispanic-white share · Q3 | — | — | — | — |
| Non-Hispanic-white share · Q4 | — | — | — | — |
| Non-Hispanic-white share · Q5 | — | — | — | — |
| Education | ||||
| College share · Q1 | R+12.3 | R+19.1 | R+38.5 | R+46.6 |
| College share · Q2 | R+13.7 | R+23.0 | R+36.2 | R+41.2 |
| College share · Q3 | R+11.5 | R+15.2 | R+20.1 | R+28.2 |
| College share · Q4 | R+3.7 | R+9.0 | R+11.7 | R+16.0 |
| College share · Q5 | D+5.9 | D+4.5 | D+14.8 | D+12.1 |
| Income & poverty | ||||
| Median household income · Q1 | D+3.8 | R+4.6 | R+13.4 | R+27.9 |
| Median household income · Q2 | R+4.5 | R+7.9 | R+14.1 | R+20.1 |
| Median household income · Q3 | R+10.1 | R+6.3 | R+11.2 | R+15.8 |
| Median household income · Q4 | R+1.1 | R+7.8 | R+1.0 | R+8.5 |
| Median household income · Q5 | D+3.6 | D+2.0 | D+12.2 | D+9.3 |
| Poverty rate · Q1 | R+3.4 | R+5.8 | D+1.3 | D+1.4 |
| Poverty rate · Q2 | R+0.9 | R+3.8 | R+4.0 | R+4.2 |
| Poverty rate · Q3 | R+1.9 | R+1.0 | R+0.1 | D+1.5 |
| Poverty rate · Q4 | D+4.4 | R+3.0 | D+6.7 | R+7.3 |
| Poverty rate · Q5 | D+17.4 | D+9.1 | D+12.2 | R+0.9 |
| Age | ||||
| Median age · Q1 | D+3.4 | D+0.1 | D+15.3 | D+7.3 |
| Median age · Q2 | D+1.4 | D+1.3 | D+4.4 | D+5.5 |
| Median age · Q3 | D+0.1 | R+5.5 | R+8.8 | R+9.7 |
| Median age · Q4 | R+4.8 | R+9.1 | R+24.7 | R+23.5 |
| Median age · Q5 | R+8.1 | R+14.0 | R+22.9 | R+24.7 |
| Share 65+ · Q1 | — | — | — | — |
| Share 65+ · Q2 | — | — | — | — |
| Share 65+ · Q3 | — | — | — | — |
| Share 65+ · Q4 | — | — | — | — |
| Share 65+ · Q5 | — | — | — | — |
| Foreign born | ||||
| Foreign-born share · Q1 | R+12.8 | R+18.9 | R+41.9 | R+47.5 |
| Foreign-born share · Q2 | R+13.9 | R+19.0 | R+33.5 | R+36.1 |
| Foreign-born share · Q3 | R+11.9 | R+14.7 | R+26.3 | R+28.3 |
| Foreign-born share · Q4 | R+8.4 | R+12.7 | R+13.0 | R+14.7 |
| Foreign-born share · Q5 | D+8.6 | D+6.4 | D+17.5 | D+12.1 |
| Housing | ||||
| Homeownership rate · Q1 | D+10.4 | D+10.4 | D+21.4 | D+16.9 |
| Homeownership rate · Q2 | R+5.3 | R+7.3 | R+8.9 | R+10.3 |
| Homeownership rate · Q3 | R+11.2 | R+14.2 | R+21.8 | R+21.1 |
| Homeownership rate · Q4 | R+13.1 | R+19.6 | R+27.6 | R+29.1 |
| Homeownership rate · Q5 | R+16.6 | R+19.2 | R+27.2 | R+28.5 |
| Religion | ||||
| Catholic-Evangelical edge · Q1 | — | — | — | — |
| Catholic-Evangelical edge · Q2 | — | — | — | — |
| Catholic-Evangelical edge · Q3 | — | — | — | — |
| Catholic-Evangelical edge · Q4 | — | — | — | — |
| Catholic-Evangelical edge · Q5 | — | — | — | — |
Subjects across all 51 states
West Virginia spans 35.5 points across the four nominees, the largest realignment in the grid, with Gore's R+6.3 in 2000 standing apart from Clinton's R+41.7 and Harris's R+41.8. Utah runs a parallel 27.7-point span in the opposite direction, moving from R+40.5 under Gore to R+21.2 under Harris as college-educated suburbs shifted left. Tennessee (25.9) and Arkansas (25.2) match the West Virginia pattern of D→R collapse, while Colorado's 19.4-point span (R+8.4 to D+11.0) and Virginia's 14.0 (R+8.0 to D+5.8) anchor the education-driven move the other way. Wisconsin sits at the opposite extreme with a 1.2-point span across all four cycles, holding within a point of even from Gore through Harris.
| State | Gore 2000 | Kerry 2004 | Clinton 2016 | Harris 2024 | Spread | First→last delta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Virginia (WV) | R+6.3 | R+12.9 | R+41.7 | R+41.8 | 35.5 pts | +35.5 |
| Utah (UT) | R+40.5 | R+45.5 | R+17.9 | R+21.2 | 27.7 pts | -19.3 |
| Tennessee (TN) | R+3.9 | R+14.3 | R+26.0 | R+29.7 | 25.9 pts | +25.9 |
| Arkansas (AR) | R+5.4 | R+9.8 | R+27.8 | R+30.6 | 25.2 pts | +25.2 |
| Hawaii (HI) | D+18.3 | D+8.7 | D+32.2 | D+23.1 | 23.5 pts | -4.8 |
| Vermont (VT) | D+9.9 | D+20.1 | D+26.4 | D+31.5 | 21.6 pts | -21.6 |
| California (CA) | D+11.8 | D+9.9 | D+30.0 | D+20.1 | 20.0 pts | -8.3 |
| Colorado (CO) | R+8.4 | R+4.7 | D+4.9 | D+11.0 | 19.4 pts | -19.4 |
| Alabama (AL) | R+14.9 | R+25.6 | R+28.1 | R+30.5 | 15.6 pts | +15.6 |
| Maryland (MD) | D+16.4 | D+13.0 | D+26.9 | D+28.5 | 15.6 pts | -12.2 |
| Rhode Island (RI) | D+29.1 | D+20.8 | D+15.4 | D+13.6 | 15.5 pts | +15.5 |
| Kentucky (KY) | R+15.1 | R+19.9 | R+29.8 | R+30.5 | 15.4 pts | +15.4 |
| Missouri (MO) | R+3.3 | R+7.2 | R+18.5 | R+18.4 | 15.2 pts | +15.1 |
| Oklahoma (OK) | R+21.9 | R+31.1 | R+36.4 | R+34.3 | 14.5 pts | +12.4 |
| Georgia (GA) | R+11.7 | R+16.6 | R+5.1 | R+2.2 | 14.4 pts | -9.5 |
| Louisiana (LA) | R+7.7 | R+14.5 | R+19.6 | R+22.0 | 14.3 pts | +14.3 |
| Virginia (VA) | R+8.0 | R+8.2 | D+5.3 | D+5.8 | 14.0 pts | -13.8 |
| Texas (TX) | R+21.3 | R+22.9 | R+9.0 | R+13.7 | 13.9 pts | -7.6 |
| Oregon (OR) | D+0.4 | D+4.2 | D+11.0 | D+14.3 | 13.9 pts | -13.9 |
| Iowa (IA) | D+0.3 | R+0.7 | R+9.3 | R+13.2 | 13.5 pts | +13.5 |
| Florida (FL) | Even | R+5.0 | R+1.2 | R+13.1 | 13.1 pts | +13.1 |
| Nebraska (NE) | R+29.0 | R+33.2 | R+25.1 | R+20.6 | 12.7 pts | -8.4 |
| Washington (WA) | D+5.6 | D+7.2 | D+15.7 | D+18.2 | 12.6 pts | -12.6 |
| New York (NY) | D+25.0 | D+18.3 | D+22.5 | D+13.2 | 11.8 pts | +11.8 |
| District of Columbia (DC) | D+76.2 | D+79.8 | D+86.8 | D+83.8 | 10.6 pts | -7.6 |
| New Jersey (NJ) | D+15.8 | D+6.7 | D+14.0 | D+5.9 | 9.9 pts | +9.9 |
| North Carolina (NC) | R+12.8 | R+12.4 | R+3.7 | R+3.2 | 9.6 pts | -9.6 |
| Kansas (KS) | R+20.8 | R+25.4 | R+20.4 | R+16.1 | 9.3 pts | -4.7 |
| Ohio (OH) | R+3.5 | R+2.1 | R+8.0 | R+11.2 | 9.1 pts | +7.7 |
| North Dakota (ND) | R+27.6 | R+27.4 | R+35.7 | R+36.5 | 9.1 pts | +8.8 |
| New Mexico (NM) | D+0.1 | R+0.8 | D+8.2 | D+6.0 | 9.0 pts | -5.9 |
| South Dakota (SD) | R+22.7 | R+21.5 | R+29.8 | R+30.3 | 8.8 pts | +7.6 |
| Idaho (ID) | R+39.5 | R+38.1 | R+31.8 | R+36.5 | 7.8 pts | -3.0 |
| Delaware (DE) | D+13.1 | D+7.6 | D+11.4 | D+14.7 | 7.2 pts | -1.7 |
| Connecticut (CT) | D+17.5 | D+10.4 | D+13.6 | D+14.5 | 7.1 pts | +3.0 |
| Arizona (AZ) | R+6.3 | R+10.4 | R+3.5 | R+5.5 | 7.0 pts | -0.8 |
| Illinois (IL) | D+12.1 | D+10.3 | D+16.9 | D+10.9 | 6.5 pts | +1.2 |
| Michigan (MI) | D+5.1 | D+3.4 | R+0.2 | R+1.4 | 6.5 pts | +6.5 |
| Wyoming (WY) | R+40.1 | R+39.8 | R+46.3 | R+45.8 | 6.5 pts | +5.7 |
| Maine (ME) | D+5.1 | D+9.0 | D+2.7 | D+6.5 | 6.3 pts | -1.4 |
| Mississippi (MS) | R+16.9 | R+19.7 | R+17.8 | R+22.9 | 6.0 pts | +6.0 |
| Nevada (NV) | R+3.5 | R+2.6 | D+2.4 | R+3.1 | 6.0 pts | -0.5 |
| Pennsylvania (PA) | D+4.2 | D+2.5 | R+0.7 | R+1.7 | 5.9 pts | +5.9 |
| Montana (MT) | R+25.1 | R+20.5 | R+20.2 | R+19.9 | 5.1 pts | -5.1 |
| Indiana (IN) | R+15.8 | R+20.7 | R+19.0 | R+19.0 | 4.9 pts | +3.2 |
| New Hampshire (NH) | R+1.3 | D+1.4 | D+0.4 | D+2.8 | 4.0 pts | -4.0 |
| South Carolina (SC) | R+15.9 | R+17.1 | R+14.3 | R+17.9 | 3.6 pts | +1.9 |
| Minnesota (MN) | D+2.4 | D+3.5 | D+1.5 | D+4.2 | 2.7 pts | -1.8 |
| Massachusetts (MA) | D+27.3 | D+25.2 | D+26.8 | D+25.2 | 2.1 pts | +2.1 |
| Alaska (AK) | — | — | R+14.8 | R+13.1 | 1.7 pts | — |
| Wisconsin (WI) | D+0.2 | D+0.4 | R+0.8 | R+0.9 | 1.2 pts | +1.1 |
Subjects across BEA regions
| BEA region | Gore 2000 | Kerry 2004 | Clinton 2016 | Harris 2024 | Sign flips |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England | D+19.2 | D+16.9 | D+17.9 | D+17.9 | — |
| Mideast | D+16.2 | D+10.6 | D+14.4 | D+9.4 | — |
| Great Lakes | D+1.5 | D+0.4 | R+0.3 | R+3.0 | — |
| Plains | R+7.0 | R+8.6 | R+13.0 | R+11.8 | — |
| Southeast | R+8.2 | R+12.6 | R+10.1 | R+13.4 | — |
| Southwest | R+17.7 | R+20.3 | R+9.8 | R+12.9 | — |
| Rocky Mountain | R+23.2 | R+21.6 | R+9.4 | R+8.4 | — |
| Far West | D+9.3 | D+8.3 | D+23.9 | D+17.5 | — |
| District of Columbia | D+76.2 | D+79.8 | D+86.8 | D+83.8 | — |
Subjects across K-Means county clusters
| Cluster | Counties | Gore 2000 | Kerry 2004 | Clinton 2016 | Harris 2024 | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly Rep Rural White (Greater Appalachia) | 475 | R+9.3 | R+17.7 | R+50.7 | R+58.0 | 48.8 pts |
| Lean Rep Rural High-Hispanic (Border / Southwest) | 43 | D+19.4 | D+13.8 | D+35.9 | Even | 36.0 pts |
| Strongly Rep Rural White (Lower Midwest / Heartland) | 591 | R+29.0 | R+36.3 | R+50.4 | R+52.3 | 23.3 pts |
| Strongly Rep Rural White (Upper Midwest) | 443 | R+5.9 | R+8.8 | R+22.0 | R+25.3 | 19.3 pts |
| Strongly Rep Rural White (Plains / Mountain Frontier) | 300 | R+43.8 | R+46.3 | R+59.6 | R+60.9 | 17.1 pts |
| Competitive Rural High-Native (Tribal Lands) | 34 | D+3.8 | R+0.2 | R+2.3 | R+12.3 | 16.1 pts |
| Strongly Dem Urban College-Educated | 124 | D+19.7 | D+18.6 | D+33.6 | D+27.3 | 15.0 pts |
| Strongly Rep Rural Mixed | 325 | R+20.1 | R+27.4 | R+28.2 | R+33.5 | 13.5 pts |
| Lean Rep Suburban College-Educated | 113 | R+9.5 | R+10.1 | R+3.0 | R+2.2 | 7.9 pts |
| Lean Dem Rural High-Black (Black Belt) | 161 | D+8.4 | D+6.9 | D+13.8 | D+8.5 | 6.9 pts |
| Strongly Rep Suburban | 272 | R+26.6 | R+31.6 | R+29.1 | R+25.4 | 6.1 pts |
| Lean Dem Suburban College-Educated | 230 | D+2.5 | D+0.9 | D+4.9 | D+6.9 | 6.0 pts |
Cycle-pair deltas by quintile
The Kerry 2004→Clinton 2016 swing in bottom-quintile foreign-born counties moved 23.0 points right, the magnitude of a generational realignment in the lowest-immigration counties of the map. The parallel cell in bottom-quintile college counties shifted 19.4 points right across the same pair, locking education and immigrant exposure together as one cleavage rather than two. Top-quintile college counties moved the other way over the same span, +10.4 points left, opening the diploma divide that defines the 2016-2024 Democratic map. The Clinton 2016→Harris 2024 pair extended the pattern but at smaller magnitudes — bottom-quintile college shifted 8.1 points right, top-quintile only 2.8 — leaving Kerry→Clinton as the inflection cycle.
Where the answer lives
United States (50 states + DC), a custom area drawn over Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
Akashic Atlas, "Four Democratic presidential coalitions across 24 years, county-by-county, with era-matched demographic controls — what overlaps, what…", answer ID jAj3klIKOoWb, generated 2026-04-28, retrieved 2026-04-29. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/jAj3klIKOoWb
Atlas answered this. Ask a follow-up.