Pennsylvania flipped from D+1.2 in 2020 to R+1.7 in 2024, a 2.9-point rightward shift that put the state on the Republican side of the ledger. The lean score sits at R+0.8, placing the medium-term baseline right of even rather than at the 2024 endpoint. Turnout came in at 70.8%.

PA, the full state outline.

Pennsylvania shifted 12.0 points right between 2008 and 2024, ending at R+1.7 after starting at D+10.3 under Obama. The inflection came in 2016, when the margin swung 6.1 points right from D+5.4 to R+0.7 and flipped the state. 2020 clawed back 1.9 points to D+1.2, but 2024 erased that and then some with a 2.9-point rightward move. Across four cycles, every transition except 2016→2020 ran rightward.

Pennsylvania closed 2024 at R+1.7 after sitting at D+1.2 in 2020 and R+0.7 in 2016 — a 12.0-point rightward move across the trend window. The 2016→2020 cycle was the lone Democratic step in the sequence, with the state snapping back 2.9 points right by 2024. Turnout held at 70.8%.

Pennsylvania is plurality non-Hispanic white at 65.8% across 13.0 million people, with a Black share of 10.7% and a Hispanic share of 8.7%. Median household income sits at $80,054, and 35.2% of adults hold a bachelor's degree. Foreign-born residents make up 7.7% of the population, and 11.7% live below the poverty line. That mix — a majority-white electorate with middling college attainment — is the demographic backdrop for the state's partisan trajectory.