- Drafted the plan
- Found ny_state
- Writing the big picture (2)
- Drawing the map (3)
- Charting the trend (4)
- Building the comparison (5)
- Reading the demographics (6)
New York State's presidential trajectory since 2012, with explicit acknowledgment that the cross-office split-ticket framing the question…
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New York State's presidential trajectory since 2012, with explicit acknowledgment that the cross-office split-ticket framing the question…
New York's presidential margin has compressed from D+28.2 in 2012 to D+13.2 in 2024, a 14.9-point rightward arc that's left the state 14.7 points clear of the national R+1.4 line — divergence from the country is now the entire read on the trajectory. Most of that move landed in a single cycle: the 2020→2024 swing was 9.9 points right, well outside the 1-3 point range typical for a 19.9M-population state. The 35.4% non-Hispanic white share and 22.8% foreign-born base would normally damp swings of that size, which is what makes the 2024 cycle the inflection point in the 12-year series.
The big picture
Headline numbers at a glance
- D+17.1
- D+23.1
- 55.3%
On the map
Where the answer lives
NY, the full state outline.
- NY
- 1 region · NY
- 42.44°N, 74.59°W
- 6
- 7.99° × 4.54°
Over time
Cycle-by-cycle arc
New York shifted 15.0 points right between 2012 and 2024, ending at D+13.2 after Obama carried it by D+28.2. The sharpest single-cycle move came in 2020→2024, a 9.9-point swing right from D+23.1 to D+13.2. The 2012→2016 cycle had already trimmed 5.7 points off the Democratic margin, dropping the state to D+22.5. The 2016→2020 cycle barely moved, ticking 0.7 points left to D+23.1 before the 2024 reversion. Cross-office ticket-splitting patterns sit outside the presidential data covered here.
Shifted 14.9 pts left across 12 years.
How it compares
Against county, state, and national
New York ran D+13.2 in 2024 while the United States overall came in R+1.4 — a 14.7-point gap that puts the state well to the left of the national read. New York's trend magnitude of -15.0 dwarfs the country's -3.5, so both rows drifted right but at very different scales. The state sat at D+23.1 and D+22.5 in the two prior cycles shown, against D+4.5 and D+2.1 nationally.
| Geography | 2016 | 2020 | 2024 | Change since 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NY | D+22.5 | D+23.1 | D+13.2 | -14.9 pts |
| United States | D+2.1 | D+4.5 | R+1.4 | -3.5 pts |
- NY-14.9 pts
- D+22.5
- D+23.1
- D+13.2
- United States-3.5 pts
- D+2.1
- D+4.5
- R+1.4
Who lives there
Population, income, education
New York is 55.2% white and 19.8% Hispanic across 19.85 million people, with a voting-age population of 15.18 million. Median household income sits at $89,823 and 40.0% of adults hold a bachelor's degree. Foreign-born residents make up 22.8% of the state, one of the highest shares in the country.
Population & people
- 19,852,366
- 15,180,974
- 22.8%
Education & income
- $89,823
- 40.0%
- 14.0%
Methodology & sources (4)
Cite this answer
Akashic Atlas, "New York State's presidential trajectory since 2012, with explicit acknowledgment that the cross-office split-ticket framing the question…", answer ID tjhdHru4LBcS, generated 2026-04-28, retrieved 2026-04-29. https://akashicedge.com/atlas/a/tjhdHru4LBcS
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