akashic
1876–2024
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ·Pennsylvania

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ delivered R+5 in 2024.

Lehigh Valley's swing identity has made it a presidential bellwether

18762024·38 elections
PA
LatestR+5in 2024
TypologyDiversifying Metrocluster typology
Population873,6032024 ACS

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania: Diversifying Metro metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Republican peak: R+44 in 1928.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+5MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Diversifying MetroAkashic typology
Population
873,6032024 5-year
Median household income
$85,1002024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
70.5%2024 5-year
Black
6.0%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
20.0%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+38 in 1964MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+44 in 1928MIT Election Lab
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ
TrumpR+5
2024 presidential margin by county for Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, PAA map of the constituent counties of Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, PA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Warren County, NJ · R+21Northampton County, PA · R+2Carbon County, PA · R+35Lehigh County, PA · D+3
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald TrumpRepublican51.7%240,504
Kamala HarrisDemocratic46.8%217,684
OtherAll other candidates1.4%6,667
D+60
R+60
4 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: −4.9% in 2024.flipped R · 2016−4.9%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884No data
1888No data
1892+16.7%
1896+0.3%
1900+6.3%
1904−6.4%
1908+2.1%
1912+32.9%
1916+7.3%
1920−19.1%
1924−27.7%
1928−43.9%
1932+4.0%
1936+17.2%
1940+8.3%
1944+2.5%
1948−0.1%
1952−10.1%
1956−21.1%
1960−7.9%
1964+37.8%
1968+3.1%
1972−21.9%
1976+4.6%
1980−12.7%
1984−16.9%
1988−12.0%
1992+3.0%
1996+4.6%
2000+0.8%
2004−1.9%
2008+9.4%
2012+2.5%
2016−5.2%
2020−1.2%
2024−4.9%
DemocraticRepublican
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−4.9%
217,684240,504464,855
R
−1.2%
219,488224,866449,609
R
−5.2%
173,816194,027385,978
D
+2.5%
176,214167,568349,377
D
+9.4%
196,436162,390363,922
R
−1.9%
167,653174,323345,191
D
+0.8%
136,975134,777283,075
D
+4.6%
116,789105,182254,642
D
+3.0%
110,988102,771275,522
R
−12.0%
102,809131,058236,298
R
−16.9%
98,551139,086239,379
R
−12.7%
85,266113,546222,148
D
+4.6%
114,163103,958222,347
R
−21.9%
83,442130,785216,538
D
+3.1%
110,043103,192224,103
D
+37.8%
154,36669,424225,011
R
−7.9%
106,123124,440230,958
R
−21.1%
81,666125,606208,198
R
−10.1%
91,671112,294205,044
R
−0.1%
79,44579,534161,820
D
+2.5%
82,80278,778162,276
D
+8.3%
90,01776,182166,918
D
+17.2%
98,85169,403171,525
D
+4.0%
66,45861,143132,022
R
−43.9%
41,685107,733150,413
R
−27.7%
32,21061,127104,577
R
−19.1%
32,19748,19483,543
D
+7.3%
32,39327,77563,087
D
+32.9%
29,4749,27261,438
D
+2.1%
32,20230,84065,928
R
−6.4%
27,41831,30561,197
D
+6.3%
31,21827,43560,272
D
+0.3%
28,02327,86657,858
D
+16.7%
28,76220,34250,492
No data
No data
No data
No data

Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
21.4%
Irish
11.9%
Italian
10.7%
English
6.5%
American
6.3%
Polish
4.3%
French
1.0%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
80.7%
speak English only
Spanish13.2%
Other Indo-European3.4%
Asian & Pacific Islander1.3%
Other languages1.3%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
19.0%
Mainline Protestant
10.4%
Other Christian
6.0%
Non-Christian
1.9%
Methodist
1.7%
Pentecostal & Holiness
1.1%
Baptist
0.4%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 59.5% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Once reliably blue owing to its steel-and-manufacturing labor base, the Lehigh Valley has shifted markedly in recent cycles, with its large and growing Latino population now a closely watched variable in statewide Pennsylvania contests.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of thirty-eight points in 1964 and a Republican high of forty-four points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved four points toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was five points.

A population of 873,603, a 71% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $85,100 describe the metro.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/10900/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 4.9 points (R+5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 464,855 votes cast, 217,684 went Democratic and 240,504 went Republican.
What is Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania's political typology?
Akashic places Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania in the "Diversifying Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 18 times, Republican 16 times, and other 0 times.
When did Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 2012.
How many people live in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania?
Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania has a population of 873,603 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania is $85,100 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $103,556.
What is the political history of Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 18 went Democratic and 16 went Republican. The metro's typology — "Diversifying Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.