akashic
1876–2024
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA·Pennsylvania

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA has voted Republican in fifteen straight presidential elections — R+5 in 2024.

State capital anchors a metro split between government workers and rural exurbs

1876 — 2024·38 elections
PA
LatestR+5in 2024
TypologyDiversifying Metrocluster typology
Population604,1552024 ACS

Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania: Diversifying Metro metro. In 2024, voted R+5%. Republican peak: R+64 in 1928.

Key facts

2024 presidential margin
R+5MIT Election Lab
Political typology
Diversifying MetroAkashic typology
Population
604,1552024 5-year
Median household income
$81,4842024 5-year
White (non-Hispanic)
73.9%2024 5-year
Black
10.3%2024 5-year
Hispanic / Latino
8.1%2024 5-year
Peak Democratic margin
D+11 in 1912MIT Election Lab
Peak Republican margin
R+64 in 1928MIT Election Lab
2024 presidential election
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
TrumpR+5
—
2024 presidential margin by county for Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, PAA map of the constituent counties of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, PA, each outlined and filled by its 2024 presidential margin from deep red (Republican) through neutral to deep blue (Democratic).Dauphin County, PA · D+6Cumberland County, PA · R+9Perry County, PA · R+49
How it voted
Share of the 2024 vote
Donald Trump ✓Republican51.9%168,814
Kamala HarrisDemocratic46.5%150,967
OtherAll other candidates1.6%5,187
D+60
R+60
3 counties, each filled by 2024 D-vs-R margin. Hover any county for its result.
presidential history
Presidential margin, 1876–2024
Democratic minus Republican, by election
Presidential margin over timeDemocratic-minus-Republican presidential margin from 1876 to 2024. Most recent: −5.5% in 2024.flipped R · 1968−5.5%DR18762024
Presidential margin over time
YearMargin (D minus R)
1876No data
1880No data
1884No data
1888No data
1892−8.4%
1896−25.5%
1900−20.9%
1904−36.4%
1908−23.7%
1912+11.1%
1916−3.5%
1920−28.6%
1924−33.9%
1928−64.1%
1932−16.5%
1936+5.9%
1940−4.0%
1944−19.4%
1948−25.3%
1952−32.2%
1956−35.7%
1960−32.7%
1964+4.6%
1968−30.2%
1972−43.9%
1976−20.2%
1980−26.9%
1984−31.4%
1988−24.3%
1992−14.6%
1996−11.9%
2000−19.4%
2004−19.5%
2008−3.9%
2012−8.0%
2016−10.5%
2020−4.7%
2024−5.5%
DemocraticRepublican
38 presidential elections
Source · MIT Election Lab · ICPSR · VEST (precinct-level 2024).
YearWonMarginDemocraticRepublicanTotal
R
−5.5%
150,967168,814324,968
R
−4.7%
147,178161,913313,615
R
−10.5%
116,423145,555276,640
R
−8.0%
115,017135,379254,707
R
−3.9%
124,677135,035262,578
R
−19.5%
98,650146,863246,717
R
−19.4%
79,902119,617204,881
R
−11.9%
74,29696,516186,471
R
−14.6%
67,71196,797198,810
R
−24.3%
63,602104,754169,643
R
−31.4%
58,642112,977172,894
R
−26.9%
50,72293,217158,246
R
−20.2%
61,95594,223159,712
R
−43.9%
39,880104,488147,070
R
−30.2%
43,89187,957146,109
D
+4.6%
78,80671,767151,408
R
−32.7%
53,343105,496159,486
R
−35.7%
46,45398,321145,327
R
−32.2%
46,78991,420138,603
R
−25.3%
41,74670,333113,121
R
−19.4%
46,01768,229114,756
R
−4.0%
58,66463,568122,594
D
+5.9%
67,88660,269129,119
R
−16.5%
38,23153,77894,172
R
−64.1%
16,11174,74791,498
R
−33.9%
19,35742,21967,352
R
−28.6%
20,75938,46061,842
R
−3.5%
20,26321,82544,085
O
+11.1%
14,4349,71842,386
R
−23.7%
15,13325,16742,421
R
−36.4%
12,17227,07940,968
R
−20.9%
15,25823,66040,157
R
−25.5%
14,26324,46740,061
R
−8.4%
15,67118,65035,393
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Demographics

2024 ACS
Race, ethnicity, and ancestry
Click any group to see the ancestries typically reported within it.
German
25.7%
Irish
11.9%
English
8.2%
Italian
6.4%
American
5.4%
Polish
2.9%
Scottish
1.8%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release. Hispanic/Latino is an ethnicity that overlaps the race categories, so these shares can total more than 100%. Ancestry is a self-reported, multiple-response item; ancestry percentages do not sum to the parent race percentage.
2024 ACS
Age distribution by sex
Median age: 40.1 in this county, 39.1 nationally
Male
Age
Female
0.7%
85+
1.6%
2.5%
75–84
2.9%
5.1%
65–74
5.8%
6.3%
55–64
6.6%
6.1%
45–54
5.9%
6.6%
35–44
6.4%
6.6%
25–34
6.5%
4.4%
18–24
4.4%
8.1%
5–17
7.7%
2.8%
<5
2.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Median household income
Inflation-adjusted dollars
$81,484
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA ranks near the middle of US counties.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA$81,484
Pennsylvania$77,971
United States$80,734
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Poverty rate
All persons below federal poverty line
10.1%
Child poverty is below the national average.
Children under 1813.0%
Working age (18–64)9.2%
Seniors (65+)9.7%
Source · American Community Survey 5-year estimates, 2024 release.
2024 ACS
Language at home
Population aged 5 and older
87.8%
speak English only
Other Indo-European4.8%
Spanish4.5%
Asian & Pacific Islander2.0%
Other languages0.9%
Source · ACS 5-year estimates, 2024.
2020 religion census
Religious adherents
Adherents per capita by tradition
Catholic & Orthodox
13.6%
Other Christian
9.0%
Mainline Protestant
7.3%
Methodist
6.0%
Pentecostal & Holiness
2.4%
Non-Christian
2.4%
Baptist
1.6%
Source · 2020 US Religion Census. Remaining 57.7% of residents not counted as adherents by any reporting body.

Harrisburg's concentration of state employees and Dauphin County's suburban precincts pull the metro toward competitive margins, while Cumberland County's faster-growing exurbs have trended reliably Republican in recent cycles by double digits.

Across the recorded series it reached a Democratic high of eleven points in 1912 and a Republican high of sixty-four points in 1928. Between 2020 and 2024 the metro moved one point toward the Republican candidate; the 2024 margin was five points.

A population of 604,155, a 74% non-Hispanic-white share, and a median household income of $81,484 describe the metro.

Compare two places, side by side

Twelve curated comparisons line up election history, demographics, and the divergence story for two places at a glance. Browse all comparisons →

Cite this page
All citations released under CC BY 4.0. Attribution: Akashic Intelligence.
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania. Akashic. https://akashic.app/cbsa/25420/. Accessed May 20, 2026. License: CC BY 4.0.
License: CC BY 4.0

Frequently asked questions

How did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania vote in 2024?
In 2024, Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Republican by 5.5 points (R+5), carried by the Republican candidate. Out of 324,968 votes cast, 150,967 went Democratic and 168,814 went Republican.
What is Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania's political typology?
Akashic places Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania in the "Diversifying Metro" typology. The typology is a data-driven cluster built from vote share, vote swing, race and ethnicity, income, language spoken at home, religion, and ancestry. Across 38 elections in the dataset, the metro has voted Democratic 2 times, Republican 31 times, and other 1 times.
When did Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania last vote Democratic?
The most recent presidential election in which Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania voted Democratic was 1964.
How many people live in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania has a population of 604,155 according to the 2024 American Community Survey 5-year estimates from the US Census Bureau.
What is the median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Median household income in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania is $81,484 — above the national median of $80,734. The Pennsylvania state median is $77,971.
What is the political history of Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania?
Akashic tracks 38 presidential elections in Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA, Pennsylvania from 1876 to 2024. Of those, 2 went Democratic and 31 went Republican. The metro's typology — "Diversifying Metro" — captures where that record, its demographics, and its recent swing place it among American communities.